Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.</li>
<li>It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.</li>
<li>Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$27.2bn this week, on small two-way volumes. China Mobile (941 HK) dominated as it reached dividend ex-date. Other high-div SOEs also saw buying.
It is not clear how much of this is H/A discounts, expected dividend tax removal, and the KPIs for SOE CEOs to raise prices and payout ratios, but it continues.
Valuations are acceptable. Flows are good. Policy changes are afoot. SOUTHBOUND may continue to see inflows - national team and otherwise.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.</li>
<li>It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a net seller this week for the first week in 6. AH premia slightly down.</li>
<li>Wide spreads continue to narrow and narrow spreads continue to widen.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a net seller this week for the first week in 6. AH premia slightly down.
Wide spreads continue to narrow and narrow spreads continue to widen.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024):  STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

China

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is an integrated coal-based energy company focusing on the coal and power businesses in China. The Company also owns and operates an integrated coal transportation network consisting of dedicated rail lines and port facilities.

PetroChina Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company offers crude oil and oil products exploration, development, production and marketing. PetroChina also markets petrochemical products and derivative chemicals.

Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited produces, sells and transports coal. The Company offers coal used by the power, chemical, and metallurgical industries.

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited operates coal businesses. The Company produces fine coal, blown coal, power coal, and coal chemical products. Yankuang Energy Group also conducts power generation, railway transport, machinery manufacturing, and heating businesses.

China Coal Energy Company Limited mines and processes coal products. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal products. China Coal Energy also conducts coal chemicals production, coal mining equipment manufacturing, pit mouth power generation, and coal mine design businesses.

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. mainly engages in the Ocean Shipping of Crude Oil and other energy sources such as Coal and Iron Ore. Through its subsidiary CLNG, the Company also provides the Ocean Shipping service of Liquefied Natural Gas.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited of Inner Mongolia is mainly involved in the production and selling of coal in China.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd. (002128 CH)

Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power Co., Ltd. mines and processes coal. The Company also generates electric power.

Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. is principally engaged in energy development, automotive services and real estate property leasing. The Company is in the business of coal mining and related coal chemical manufacturing. The Company is also engaged in the processing and distributing of granite materials and trading of general merchandise such as plastic doors and windows.

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

Hess Corporation is a global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. of Delaware operates as a pipeline transportation and energy storage company. The Company owns and operates pipelines that transport natural gas, gasoline, crude oil, carbon dioxide, and other products, as well as terminals that store petroleum products and chemicals and handle bulk materials like coal and petroleum coke.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

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Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

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The Quiddity AH Pairs Portfolio tilts long liquid Hs and outperformed them but fell 11bp on the week. CNOOC was the culprit. It was also the big SB...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 June 2024); China Mobile, Energy, Financials All Bought Bigly

Big net buying on HK Connect by SOUTHBOUND. This week it was China Mobile (ex-div on 6 June), energy, and financials again. MMG was sold on the...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 8 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Pairs Portfolio tilts long liquid Hs and outperformed them but fell 11bp on the week. CNOOC was the culprit. It was also the big SB...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The first week of the year, the A/H premia on average were flat. On liquid names, Hs slightly underperformed. Very mixed across sectors. Premia...

Travis Lundy