HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> (CCCC) is definitely one of the worst performing infrastructure-related stocks this year, with 30.2% collapse in its share price YTD. In our view, this should have significantly reflected the concerns on the weak 1H20 result (-37.2% YoY), surge in credit impairment, tight financial position and potential US sanctions. In the post-1H20 result investor call, however, management has already suggested that its profitability should see sequential improvement in 2H20. At 4.2x PER and 0.26x P/B on 12-month forward basis, valuations are clearly inexpensive, but there is likely continue pressure on share price in the near term as the market digests negative news. However, we are positive on its prospects with the resumption of toll collection, acceleration of project construction and lower credit impairment. A successful issuance of REIT on its underlying toll road assets will kick-start a re-rating with a narrower discount to book value, in our view.

China Communications Construction (1800 HK) (CCCC) is definitely one of the worst performing infrastructure-related stocks this year, with 30.2% collapse in its share price YTD. In our view, this should have significantly reflected the concerns on the weak 1H20 result (-37.2% YoY), surge in credit impairment, tight financial position and potential US sanctions. In the post-1H20 result investor call, however, management has already suggested that its profitability should see sequential improvement in 2H20. At 4.2x PER and 0.26x P/B on 12-month forward basis, valuations are clearly inexpensive, but there is likely continue pressure on share price in the near term as the market digests negative news. However, we are positive on its prospects with the resumption of toll collection, acceleration of project construction and lower credit impairment. A successful issuance of REIT on its underlying toll road assets will kick-start a re-rating with a narrower discount to book value, in our view.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-1H20 Result Investor Call

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Leyou, FamilyMart, Softbank, Ootoya, Bank Permata, Naspers, Haw Par/UIC

We believe the valuations of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> - 0.27x P/B and 3.9x PE (on a 12-month forward basis) - have well factored in concerns including tight cash flow, high gearing, heavy investments and risk of overseas projects. In fact, such valuation multiples are almost at 2 SD below the average in the last five years, and we see further downside limited.In our view, there are a number of drivers that can support a re-rating of the stock over the next 12 months: 1.) infrastructure spending and new project momentum, 2.) beneficiary of government's infrastructure REIT program, 3.) resumption of toll road collection and profit recovery in 2H20, and 4.) share buyback.

We believe the valuations of China Communications Construction (1800 HK) - 0.27x P/B and 3.9x PE (on a 12-month forward basis) - have well factored in concerns including tight cash flow, high gearing, heavy investments and risk of overseas projects. In fact, such valuation multiples are almost at 2 SD below the average in the last five years, and we see further downside limited.In our view, there are a number of drivers that can support a re-rating of the stock over the next 12 months: 1.) infrastructure spending and new project momentum, 2.) beneficiary of government's infrastructure REIT program, 3.) resumption of toll road collection and profit recovery in 2H20, and 4.) share buyback.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Every Dog Has Its Day

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Keppel, FamilyMart, Toshiba, Sogo/Sogou, Chinese Toll Roads

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China's issuance of special purpose bonds (SPB) reached a record of Rmb2.4trn in 1H20, an overwhelming 73% YoY growth. At least 59% of the proceeds are to be invested in infrastructure and related sectors, with transport infrastructure being the largest category with a 26% share. In our view, such massive investment will support the earnings of the construction related companies in 2H20 when such funds filter through to the real economy in the form of end-product demand.We expect the construction materials, infrastruture construction companies and construction machinery sectors to benefit from such investments. Many of these stocks have underperformed the market sharply YTD and are trading at depressed valuations of single-digit or even low single-digit levels. In our view, potential earnings upside will serve as a catalyst for a catch up in their share prices over the next six months.

China's issuance of special purpose bonds (SPB) reached a record of Rmb2.4trn in 1H20, an overwhelming 73% YoY growth. At least 59% of the proceeds are to be invested in infrastructure and related sectors, with transport infrastructure being the largest category with a 26% share. In our view, such massive investment will support the earnings of the construction related companies in 2H20 when such funds filter through to the real economy in the form of end-product demand.We expect the construction materials, infrastruture construction companies and construction machinery sectors to benefit from such investments. Many of these stocks have underperformed the market sharply YTD and are trading at depressed valuations of single-digit or even low single-digit levels. In our view, potential earnings upside will serve as a catalyst for a catch up in their share prices over the next six months. 

China Infrastructure: Record Special Purpose Bonds Issuance to Drive Construction Sectors in 2H20

China

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

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China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-1H20 Result Investor Call

China Communications Construction (1800 HK) is definitely one of the worst pe

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Leyou, FamilyMart, Softbank, Ootoya, Bank Permata, Naspers, Haw Par/UIC

Last Week in Event SPACE ... The offer for Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) from Tencent Holdings (700 HK) is a done deal, but trading wide-ish on...

David Blennerhassett

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Every Dog Has Its Day

We believe the valuations of China Communications Construction (1800 HK) - 0.27x P/B and 3.9x PE (on a 12-month forward basis) - have well factored...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Keppel, FamilyMart, Toshiba, Sogo/Sogou, Chinese Toll Roads

Last Week in Event SPACE ... At extreme discounts to NAV for both Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) & Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP),...

David Blennerhassett

China Infrastructure: Record Special Purpose Bonds Issuance to Drive Construction Sectors in 2H20

China's issuance of special purpose bonds (SPB) reached a record of Rmb2.4trn in 1H20, an overwhelming 73% YoY growth. At least 59% of the proceeds...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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