HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Xiamen International Port H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)'s composite document is out with the H Shareholders’ class meeting scheduled for 16 September. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
This is a done deal. At last close and for a 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 0.9% and 7.6%, respectively. 


Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

<ul>
<li>The pre-condition for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>’s privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.25 per H share. </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.7% and 16.0%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The pre-condition for Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)’s privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.25 per H share. 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
The offer is attractive. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.7% and 16.0%, respectively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding at HK$2.25 per H share + final dividend of RMB0.021 per share (ex-div: 15 June). </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We think that the privatisation proposal will likely succeed. At the last close, the gross spread is 55.2%.</li>
</ul>



Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK) announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer from Xiamen Port Holding at HK$2.25 per H share + final dividend of RMB0.021 per share (ex-div: 15 June). 
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders' rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.  
The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. We think that the privatisation proposal will likely succeed. At the last close, the gross spread is 55.2%.


Xiamen Port’s Juicy HK$2.25 Per H Share Privatisation Offer

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.Average allocations in the Industrials sector fell from a peak of 11.4% in mid-2011 to a low of just 4.82% in July of last year.  Since that trough, allocations have started to increase, with today's levels of 5.46% the highest since late 2019.We highlight 7 companies that have attracted new investment in the early stages of the reallocation towards the Industrials sector.

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.Average allocations in the Industrials sector fell from a peak of 11.4% in mid-2011 to a low of just 4.82% in July of last year.  Since that trough, allocations have started to increase, with today's levels of 5.46% the highest since late 2019.We highlight 7 companies that have attracted new investment in the early stages of the reallocation towards the Industrials sector.  

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xiamen Port’s Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition is satisfied. Interims are on 26 August. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 16.0%....

Arun George

Asia Ex-Japan: Industrials Rotation

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xiamen Port’s H Share Class Meeting on 16 September

This is a done deal. At the last close price of HK$2.23 per H Share and for a 6 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 7.6%.

Arun George

Xiamen Port’s Pre-Condition Satisfied

The pre-condition is satisfied. Interims are on 26 August. At last close and for a 21 October payment, the annualised spread to the offer is 16.0%....

Arun George

Xiamen Port’s Juicy HK$2.25 Per H Share Privatisation Offer

Xiamen Port Holding will offer HK$2.25 per H share + a final dividend of RMB0.021 per share. The offer is attractive in comparison to historical...

Arun George

Asia Ex-Japan: Industrials Rotation

Investor sentiment in the Industrials sector is turning positive after a multi-year decline among active Asia Ex-Japan fund managers.

Steven Holden