Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now</li>
<li>We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade</li>
<li>Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Friday container giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moeller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22428:1" rel="noopener">AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)</a> raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+</li>
<li>Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated</li>
<li>Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)</li>
</ul>


On Friday container giant AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC) raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+
Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated
Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)


Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. </li>
<li>Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.</li>
<li>Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q1 earnings were solid, despite plummeting container rates and volumes. Annualizing Q1 Net Income would give RoE of about 17%, which is a healthy level, in our view. 
Q1 EBITDA of US$4 bn is equivalent to 36% to 50% of full-year guidance, which remains unchanged. Maersk indicated Q1 will likely be its most profitable quarter in 2023.
Maersk's result reinforces our view that container rates are bottoming. A related takeaway is that a slowing goods inflation rate could lose a tailwind it's enjoyed since last October.


Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

<ul>
<li>Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023</li>
<li>In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news</li>
<li>Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance</li>
</ul>


Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023
In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news
Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

According to our index, container shipping price momentum remains depressed, but stable. On the other hand, fuel prices -- a boon to earnings for...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

Maersk Q2 results beat expectations handily. More importantly, the company raised FY23 guidance for EBITDA and FCF, though management also...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q1: Earnings Fine | Guidance Intact | Takeaways for Container Shipping (And Inflation)

Maersk's Q1 result showed a steep Y/Y decline in earnings due to lower rates. But RoE is fine, and the company maintained guidance, which supports...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Container shipping industry momentum bottomed in Q1, and related shares have stopped reacting to bad news. News and commentary from industry...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

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