Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong</li>
<li>But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows</li>
<li>We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade </li>
</ul>


Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong
But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows
We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022</li>
<li>But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...</li>
<li>We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...
We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades</li>
<li>Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124</li>
<li>Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence</li>
</ul>


Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades
Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124
Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>China's two national port companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.</li>
<li>With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.</li>
<li>CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.</li>
</ul>


China's two national port companies China Merchants Port (144 HK) and Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.
With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.
CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.


China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

<ul>
<li>Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March</li>
<li>Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124</li>
<li>Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm</li>
</ul>


Our analysis suggests container rate momentum remained +ive in March
Despite higher fuel expense, core container margins likely rose Y/Y in Q124
Our L/S pair trade? It's worked, a little, but Evergreen shares have stayed firm


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

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China Merchants Port (144 HK)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

Average deep-sea rates and traffic remained firm in April. The L/S pair trades we suggested back in mid-March? One of them has worked out quite well.

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

​China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | March Volumes Strong | Q1 Margins Likely Up Y/Y (April 2024)

Container rate momentum remained +ive in March, & we believe carriers' margins probably improved Y/Y in Q124 (despite higher fuel expenses). Our L...

Tracking Traffic

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...