IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Yashili International Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> announced that the Dumex China Disposal was completed. The completion will result in the satisfaction of the last pre-condition, likely within five business days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>’s offer is HK$1.20 per share. Due to the upcoming release of full-year results, the scheme document will be likely despatched by early April. </li>
<li>This is a done deal and timing is the key risk. At the current price and for a late-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.6% and 11.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) announced that the Dumex China Disposal was completed. The completion will result in the satisfaction of the last pre-condition, likely within five business days.

China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s offer is HK$1.20 per share. Due to the upcoming release of full-year results, the scheme document will be likely despatched by early April. 
This is a done deal and timing is the key risk. At the current price and for a late-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.6% and 11.3%, respectively.


Yashili (1230 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfaction Likely Within 5 Business Days

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Mar 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were GWM (2333 HK), Aia (1299 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Mengniu Dairy, Sino Biopharmaceutical

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> has announced that the disposal of Dumex China to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> has been completed.</li>
<li>This satisfies the second of three SPAs announced last May, leaving the sale of Danone's 25% stake in Yashili to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> outstanding. </li>
<li>This stake sale should conclude next week, to be followed by the launch of the Scheme later this month, early next.</li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) has announced that the disposal of Dumex China to Danone SA (BN FP) has been completed.
This satisfies the second of three SPAs announced last May, leaving the sale of Danone's 25% stake in Yashili to China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) outstanding. 
This stake sale should conclude next week, to be followed by the launch of the Scheme later this month, early next.


Yashili (1230 HK): ​Mengniu Offer Imminent As Key Sale Concludes

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.    </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihara-science-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9870:1" rel="noopener">Ihara Science (5999 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Electric (6641 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techno-associe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3893:1" rel="noopener">Techno Associe (8249 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP).    
Lowest spreads - Ihara Science (5999 JP), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Nissin Electric (6641 JP), Techno Associe (8249 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (27 Feb) - Jiangnan, Origin Energy, Pushpay, Nitro, Norwest, Halcyon, Boustead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 3.28% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,162m at the close on 10 March.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> is quite high in terms of days of ADV to cover and in terms of float.</li>
</ul>


As expected, XPeng (9868 HK) replaces China Feihe (6186 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close on 10 March.
Using prices from the close on 24 February, estimated one-way turnover is 3.28% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,162m at the close on 10 March.
Short interest on XPeng (9868 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK) is quite high in terms of days of ADV to cover and in terms of float.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

Yashili (1230 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfaction Likely Within 5 Business Days

This is a done deal and timing is the key risk. At the current price and for a late-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.6% and 11.3%,...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Mengniu Dairy, Sino Biopharmaceutical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were GWM (2333 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yashili (1230 HK): Mengniu Offer Imminent As Key Sale Concludes

The Dumex China sale is done. The despatch of the Scheme Doc should occur around this time next month. Trading at a 5.3%/21.1% gross/annualised...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Feb) - Jiangnan, Origin Energy, Pushpay, Nitro, Norwest, Halcyon, Boustead

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (98.5%), Alliance Aviation (36.1%), 111 (30.7%), Golden Energy (13.0%), Origin Energy (10.1%), Toyo...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

Xpeng replaces China Feihe in the HSCEI at the close on 10 March. Li Auto is the biggest gainer following a change in index handling for dual...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yashili (1230 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfaction Likely Within 5 Business Days

This is a done deal and timing is the key risk. At the current price and for a late-May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.6% and 11.3%,...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Mar 3rd): Great Wall Motor, China Mengniu Dairy, Sino Biopharmaceutical

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were GWM (2333 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yashili (1230 HK): ​Mengniu Offer Imminent As Key Sale Concludes

The Dumex China sale is done. The despatch of the Scheme Doc should occur around this time next month. Trading at a 5.3%/21.1% gross/annualised...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (27 Feb) - Jiangnan, Origin Energy, Pushpay, Nitro, Norwest, Halcyon, Boustead

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (98.5%), Alliance Aviation (36.1%), 111 (30.7%), Golden Energy (13.0%), Origin Energy (10.1%), Toyo...

Arun George

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

Xpeng replaces China Feihe in the HSCEI at the close on 10 March. Li Auto is the biggest gainer following a change in index handling for dual...

Brian Freitas

Yashili (1230 HK): Mengniu Offer Imminent As Key Sale Concludes