Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>During the lunch break, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK</a>)  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1220/2024122000232.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions - the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.</li>
<li>The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days - or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.</li>
<li>Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn't materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive - and that should now be known - management should unanimously back XJF's Offer.</li>
</ul>


During the lunch break, Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)  announced that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF) had satisfied all pre-conditions - the final approvals concerned outbound direct investments.
The Offer Document, including the IFA opinion, is expected to be dispatched  in seven days - or 27th December, at which time, the Offer will be open to acceptances.
Evidently the Jeff Bi/Gong Hong MGO isn't materialising any time soon. Provided the IFA is supportive - and that should now be known - management should unanimously back XJF's Offer.


GAPack (468 HK): XJF Satisfies Pre-Cons. Management Should Back Terms

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

<ul>
<li>Back on the 27 January 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a> entered an agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH)</a> (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. </li>
<li>CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?</li>
</ul>


Back on the 27 January 2023, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) entered an agreement with Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) to sell its 28.22% stake in GAPack (468 HK). 
That sale completed in September.  Last week, XJF requisitioned an EGM to consider appointing five new (&amp; friendly) directors, all-but taking control of the board. 
CEO and founder Jeff Bi holds 9.65%. The question is: what are his options?


GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 26th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 26th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Ck Asset (1113 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Yihai International (1579 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 26th): Tencent, AIA, CK Asset

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austasia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36655:1" rel="noopener">AustAsia Group (2425 HK)</a> should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. </li>
<li>Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. </li>
<li>Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company AustAsia Group (2425 HK) should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. 
Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. 
Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.


China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

GAPack (468 HK): XJF Satisfies Pre-Cons. Management Should Back Terms

Bi/Hong will likely stick to their guns, and reject XJF's offer, and hope the deal fails. Minority shareholders should ignore that advice and tender.

David Blennerhassett

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

GAPack (468 HK): Unpacking XJF's Move To Send The Board Packing

Nothing like bringing one of your customers - China Mengniu - on board (so to speak), both as a substantial shareholder (5.01%) and board member...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 26th): Tencent, AIA, CK Asset

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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