Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-ruyi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3296:1" rel="noopener">China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK)</a> has broken out from its triangle pattern.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's unusual trading channel pattern may be coming to an end and short selling declines.
Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) broke a falling triangle pattern and now trades above near term support levels.  The company's dual listing announcement and large buyback program are near-term positives.

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) has broken out of its rounding bottom pattern with a positive earnings announcement.  China Ruyi Holdings (136 HK) has broken out from its triangle pattern.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.</li>
<li>KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.</li>
<li>Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.</li>
</ul>


China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24, because four novel copyrights for movies brought box office hits.
KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24 compared with a 19% YoY decrease in 1Q24, as government policies supported existing home transaction.
Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000 fresh graduates for tech positions in 2025.


China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.</li><li>From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;</li><li>2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.com</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our previous expectation.From a full-year perspective, given the rate cut cycle has not yet started and liquidity remains tight, we suggest focusing on: 1) companies capable of boosting shareholder returns or maintaining decent returns, supported by solid fundamentals (strong competitive advantages, steady growth in core business, and stable profitability) and committed to enhancing shareholder returns (also depends on management's willingness), such as Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase;2) companies whose new businesses have significant market potential and are poised to bring considerable capital gains in the long run, particularly from overseas expansion and AI-related initiatives, such as Pinduoduo, Tencent, Alibaba, and Trip.comContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Webtoon Entertainment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a> raised around US$315m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$21/share.</li>
<li>Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) raised around US$315m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$21/share.
Webtoon Entertainment is a global storytelling platform where a community of creators and users discover, create and share new content.
In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Webtoon Entertainment IPO Trading - Not Cheap Given the Lack of Growth

China

China Literature is the largest online literature platform in China

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China Literature (772 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 24)

GDS continues to rally after its breakout from its 2 year downtrend. Huatai maintained a BUY on the stock and raised its target price to HK$27.49...

David Mudd

China Consumption Weekly (19Aug2024): China Literature, BEKE, Alibaba, JD, JD Health, Tencent Music

China Literature’s revenue increased by 28% YoY in 1H24. KE revenue increased by 20% YoY in 2Q24. Alibaba announced that it will recruit 1,000...

Ming Lu

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Internet - 1Q24 recap & our three stock-picking ideas

Year to date, the internet sector has pulled back after rapid rallies buoyed by improved sentiment and short-term fund inflows, in line with our...

CMB International

Webtoon Entertainment IPO Trading - Not Cheap Given the Lack of Growth

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) raised around US$315m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$21/share.

Ethan Aw

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