Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has over 1x ADV to buy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH)</a> trackers. The stock is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.

Trip.com (9961 HK) has over 1x ADV to buy from Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) trackers. The stock is also an add to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI).


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 31st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Bilibili, Lenovo, Kingsoft, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 31st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Bilibili, Lenovo, Kingsoft, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 31st): Tencent, Meituan, Bilibili, Lenovo, Kingsoft, CCB

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">IQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> aims to raise net proceeds of US$442.3 million through the placement of 76.5 million ADS at US$5.90 per ADS.</li>
<li>The net proceeds will be used for working capital purposes, including serving its existing debt obligations. The placement closes on 19 January. </li>
<li>The placement price is fair vs peers and is an opportunity to play iQiyi’s expected topline recovery which is supported by ongoing margin improvement and declining cash burn. </li>
</ul>



IQIYI Inc (IQ US) aims to raise net proceeds of US$442.3 million through the placement of 76.5 million ADS at US$5.90 per ADS.
The net proceeds will be used for working capital purposes, including serving its existing debt obligations. The placement closes on 19 January. 
The placement price is fair vs peers and is an opportunity to play iQiyi’s expected topline recovery which is supported by ongoing margin improvement and declining cash burn. 


IQIYI (IQ US) Placement: Fair Price for a Potential but Risky Recovery Play

China

China Literature is the largest online literature platform in China

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Literature (772 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. Trip.com is...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 31st): Tencent, Meituan, Bilibili, Lenovo, Kingsoft, CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Bilibili, Lenovo, Kingsoft, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

IQIYI (IQ US) Placement: Fair Price for a Potential but Risky Recovery Play

The placement price is fair vs peers and is an opportunity to play iQiyi’s expected topline recovery which is supported by ongoing margin...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)