IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The monthly update notes further progress made by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> in satisfying the precondition for its HK$7.21 voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The remaining preconditions (ORG shareholder and NDRC/SAFE approval) are low-risk. Including irrevocable, ORG represents 46.45% of outstanding shares within reach of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The two event risks (irrevocable termination date, precondition long stop date) should not derail the deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 4.9%. </li>
</ul>


The monthly update notes further progress made by ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) in satisfying the precondition for its HK$7.21 voluntary offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 
The remaining preconditions (ORG shareholder and NDRC/SAFE approval) are low-risk. Including irrevocable, ORG represents 46.45% of outstanding shares within reach of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. 
The two event risks (irrevocable termination date, precondition long stop date) should not derail the deal. At the last close, the gross spread was 4.9%. 


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Inching Towards the Launch of the Offer

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.</li>
<li>The IPO was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-2460-hk-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:162418" rel="noopener">CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) priced its IPO at HK$14.50 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$649 million. The shares will start trading on 23 October.
The IPO was discussed in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case, CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights. 
The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a>, China's largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China's largest purified drinking water company, has launched its HKEx IPO to raise up to US$650 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a>, China's largest purified drinking water company, is premarketing an HKEx to raise US$0.5-1 billion.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157572" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158613" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cr-beverage-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:161273" rel="noopener">CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and examine CR Beverage's potential valuation range for the first time.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK), China's largest purified drinking water company, is premarketing an HKEx to raise US$0.5-1 billion.
We previously discussed the IPO in CR Beverage IPO: The Bull Case, CR Beverage IPO: The Bear Case and CR Beverage IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and examine CR Beverage's potential valuation range for the first time.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At the first close , SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0903/2024090302069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failed to secure the 50% acceptance condition</a>. No surprises there. What was a surprise was Champion Holdings letting the Offer <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0903/2024090302069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lapse</a>. </li>
<li>Champion Holdings could have extended the Offer to the 30th Sept, which would have achieved little. But they could have bumped terms. They did neither.</li>
<li>That leaves <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> as the sole bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> . And arguably, an unwilling bidder at that. </li>
</ul>


At the first close , SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion Holdings failed to secure the 50% acceptance condition. No surprises there. What was a surprise was Champion Holdings letting the Offer lapse. 
Champion Holdings could have extended the Offer to the 30th Sept, which would have achieved little. But they could have bumped terms. They did neither.
That leaves ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) as the sole bidder for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) . And arguably, an unwilling bidder at that. 


Hong Kong

China Foods Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates food processing businesses.  The Company processes and refines edible oil and fats, produces confectionery products, wine and beverage as well as flour including wheat and other grain products.  In addition, China Foods Limited trades food products.

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China Foods Ltd (506 HK)

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Inching Towards the Launch of the Offer

The precondition is almost done as CPMC shareholder and NDRC approvals are secured. Only SAFE approval, which is a formality, is outstanding. This...

Arun George

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment of the peers has remained unchanged since the IPO launch. CR Beverage is fairly valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that CR Beverage is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

CR Beverage IPO: Valuation First-Look

CR Beverage is premarketing an HKEx to raise US$0.5-1 billion. In this note, we present our forecasts and examine CR Beverage's potential valuation...

Arun George

CPMC (906 HK): Champion Holdings Walks

If mid-late Jan 2025 payment, this is trading at an unrealistic gross/annualised spread of 0.4%/1.1%.. Sell here. Then buy again and on large dips....

David Blennerhassett

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