Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Matheson, Naspers/Prosus, China Conch, Vedanta, Aussie Pharma, Toshiba

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

SGX Asia Currencies and Commodities Insights

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-9757'>Fantasia Holdings Group Co</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate GroupFantasia Holdings Group Co

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Fantasia Holdings Group Co

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*Disposal of Shengjing Bank Stake:</em></strong> China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] announced that it is selling a 19.93% stake in Shengjing Bank (2066.HK) at a take-under price of CNY 5.70 per share (19.8% below market) or at a P/BV or 51.4% - representing a MTM loss of CNY 9.9 bn (USD 1.53 bn) or approximately 2.5% of Evergrande’s stated equity; and  </p><p><strong><em>*Systemic Banking Risk Highlighted: </em></strong>Evergrande is alleged to have USD 20 bn in “direct and indirect” risk due to Shengjing Bank, which would represent a true systemic challenge given the bank's size and importance. If the Evergrande exposure of CNY 129.4 bn is remotely correct, it would appear that Shenjiang Bank has been materially under-reporting NPLs. If this figure is correct, a reserve shortfall of CNY 128.4 (USD 19.9 bn) would appear to exist – representing 158% of 2Q21 stated equity and intimating Shengjing Bank is technically insolvent.</p>

*Disposal of Shengjing Bank Stake: China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] announced that it is selling a 19.93% stake in Shengjing Bank (2066.HK) at a take-under price of CNY 5.70 per share (19.8% below market) or at a P/BV or 51.4% - representing a MTM loss of CNY 9.9 bn (USD 1.53 bn) or approximately 2.5% of Evergrande’s stated equity; and  *Systemic Banking Risk Highlighted: Evergrande is alleged to have USD 20 bn in “direct and indirect” risk due to Shengjing Bank, which would represent a true systemic challenge given the bank's size and importance. If the Evergrande exposure of CNY 129.4 bn is remotely correct, it would appear that Shenjiang Bank has been materially under-reporting NPLs. If this figure is correct, a reserve shortfall of CNY 128.4 (USD 19.9 bn) would appear to exist – representing 158% of 2Q21 stated equity and intimating Shengjing Bank is technically insolvent.

China Evergrande Group – Daisy Chain Pulled

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a>,  a leading property developer in Hong Kong - and avid securities investor - is currently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0929/2021092900219.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. There are, as yet, no further details, although shares did gain 33% before being halted at 11.10am today. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener"></a>Joseph Lau and his wife Chan Hoi Wan control <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllSSList.aspx?sa2=as&amp;sid=206&amp;corpn=Chinese+Estates+Holdings+Ltd.&amp;sd=29/09/2013&amp;ed=29/09/2021&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=29%2f09%2f2013&amp;sced=29%2f09%2f2021&amp;sc=127&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;g_lang=en&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">74.99%</a> of the company.</p>
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<p>This insight provides some brief background on Chinese Estates, plus speculates on a fair price should a firm Offer unfold. </p>
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Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK),  a leading property developer in Hong Kong - and avid securities investor - is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. There are, as yet, no further details, although shares did gain 33% before being halted at 11.10am today. 


Joseph Lau and his wife Chan Hoi Wan control 74.99% of the company.


This insight provides some brief background on Chinese Estates, plus speculates on a fair price should a firm Offer unfold. 


Chinese Estates (127 HK): Potential Privatisation?

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Matheson, Naspers/Prosus, China Conch, Vedanta, Aussie Pharma, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SGX Asia Currencies and Commodities Insights

SGX Asia Currencies Insights Yuan stability should continue given risks from China’s rapidly slowing economy and ongoing financial stability...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Fantasia Holdings Group Co

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande Group – Daisy Chain Pulled

EVERGRANDE: Evergrande is selling a 19.9% stake in Shengjing Bank, leading to a MTM loss of USD 1.53 bn or 2.5% of equity. It's risk outstanding is...

Thomas J. Monaco

Chinese Estates (127 HK): Potential Privatisation?

To get this Offer the line, I reckon Lau would have to pay a significant premium to the undisturbed price. Potentially upwards of 75% or $3.82...

David Blennerhassett

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