Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas?slug=quiddity-leaderboard-asx-dec-24-three-changes-possible-new-long-short-ideas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We continue to expect one change for ASX 50. However, our expectations for ASX 200 have changed since our last insight (link).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

<ul>
<li>
Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now</li>
<li>First the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
<li>Investors buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a> in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now
First the low-balled VTOs for AIS (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then the Intouch (INTUCH TB)/Gulf Energy (GULF TB) amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.
Investors buying SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP) in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

<ul>
<li>I  tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bossini-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4085:1" rel="noopener">Bossini International (592 HK)</a> low-balled scrip Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-goods-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15864:1" rel="noopener">Viva Goods (933 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-grand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18241:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK)</a> also suspended due to the Takeovers code. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">GJS (2611 HK)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities (600837 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


I  tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week: Bossini International (592 HK) low-balled scrip Offer from Viva Goods (933 HK). Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) also suspended due to the Takeovers code. 
Key updates took place on: GJS (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities (600837 CH), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU), TCM (570 HK) and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: GJS/Haitong, Fuji Soft, Bossini, Dyna-Mac, Beijing Capital Grand, TCM

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th September, pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Charter Hall has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241018/pdf/0698jwgh9vfx9k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased terms to A$3.85/share</a> (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. </li>
<li>
HPI's <a href="https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/10/18/charter-hall-ups-the-ante-with-final-hpi-bid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 

HPI's reported response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."


Australia

Charter Hall Retail REIT owns a portfolio of supermarkets and shopping centers located in non-metropolitan areas throughout Australia, New Zealand and the United States.

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Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Clarity Pharma and Resolute Mining Competing for ASX 200 Spot

Spark New Zealand (SPK AU) is a high-conviction ASX 200 DEL. Clarity Pharma (CU6 AU) is leading the race to become an ASX 200 add and Resolute...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: GJS/Haitong, Fuji Soft, Bossini, Dyna-Mac, Beijing Capital Grand, TCM

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

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