Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some</li>
<li>This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries</li>
<li>Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world</li>
</ul>


Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries
Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world


Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ</li>
<li>Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs</li>
<li>Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries</li>
</ul>


NPL growth in 1Q24 is higher than all peers QoQ in NTDm and 90% higher QoQ
Mega's YTD net profit is up only 3.2% as at May which may mean high credit costs
Impairment costs in total were around 3x higher last year YoY which can also be due to acquisitions, subsidiaries


Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-vital-components" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18397:1" rel="noopener">Asia Vital Components (3017 TT)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chang-hwa-commercial-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3494:1" rel="noopener">Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 21 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-vital-components" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18397:1" rel="noopener">Asia Vital Components (3017 TT)</a> was added to a global index at the end of May and the stock has dropped nearly 25% from its highs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-vital-components" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18397:1" rel="noopener">Asia Vital Components (3017)</a> trades at a much higher forward PE compared to its peers while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chang-hwa-commercial-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3494:1" rel="noopener">Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801)</a> trades at a lower PB compared to its peers.</li>
</ul>



Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) will replace Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 21 June.

Asia Vital Components (3017 TT) was added to a global index at the end of May and the stock has dropped nearly 25% from its highs.

Asia Vital Components (3017) trades at a much higher forward PE compared to its peers while Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801) trades at a lower PB compared to its peers.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Asia Vital Components to Replace Chang Hwa Commercial Bank

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.</li>
<li>While the T50 and T100 index changes were perfectly in line with our expectations there were some surprises among the TDIV index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final flow expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the T50/100 index family and the TDIV index were confirmed after market close on Friday 7th June 2024.
While the T50 and T100 index changes were perfectly in line with our expectations there were some surprises among the TDIV index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's final flow expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.


Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Market Largely Influenced by Macro Trends and Nvidia Movements This Past Week</li>
<li>Key Events: Computex, Apple WDC, Key Taiwan May Revenue Releases</li>
<li>Apple (AAPL US) Is Overhauling Siri In Order to Create a Beautiful Voice-based AI Interface for the iPhone</li>
</ul>


Market Largely Influenced by Macro Trends and Nvidia Movements This Past Week
Key Events: Computex, Apple WDC, Key Taiwan May Revenue Releases
Apple (AAPL US) Is Overhauling Siri In Order to Create a Beautiful Voice-based AI Interface for the iPhone


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Computex & Apple WDC Imminent; Apple Releasing New AI Voice Interface for IPhone

Taiwan

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT)

Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Taiwan's banks may be unique with reasonable tech exposure, a possible driver for some of the best loan volume anywhere, with strong credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Mega Financial - NPL Formation In 1Q24 Surpasses All Peers, May YTD Net Profit Growth YoY Only 3%

Mega Financial is seeing weak net profit growth in its May 2024 release. Its surge in NPLs in 1Q24 may be a reason for this, and recall its...

Daniel Tabbush

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Asia Vital Components to Replace Chang Hwa Commercial Bank

Asia Vital Components will replace Chang Hwa Commercial Bank in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF. Compared to their peers, Asia Vital trades...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 24 Rebal: 15/18 Hits; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Ideas

We estimate one-way flow for the TDIV June 2024 rebal to be around US$1.08bn which translates to a turnover of 17%. We expect the top outflow names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Computex & Apple WDC Imminent; Apple Releasing New AI Voice Interface for IPhone

Key events this week include Computex, Apple WDC, and Taiwan revenue releases. Apple is revamping Siri to create a voice-based AI interface for the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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