Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>April monthly data on pre-tax income shows slowing YoY growth compared with YTD growth</li>
<li>NIM pressure was severe in past six months and this can be a key driver of less profit growth</li>
<li>Credit costs in decline supported net profit delta, but this may not longer be sustainable</li>
</ul>


April monthly data on pre-tax income shows slowing YoY growth compared with YTD growth
NIM pressure was severe in past six months and this can be a key driver of less profit growth
Credit costs in decline supported net profit delta, but this may not longer be sustainable


Chang Hwa Commercial Bank - April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)</li>
<li>Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 11 October, there could be 6 adds and 5 deletes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in December.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a one-way trade of TWD 49bn (US$1.52bn)
Shorts have been building up in some of the forecast deletes and in a couple of the forecast adds as well.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> in the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airtac-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20538:1" rel="noopener">Airtac International (1590 TT)</a> has possibly just avoided deletion.</li>
<li>Short interest has been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> as the stock has rallied, while cumulative excess volume has continued to increase steadily.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> as the stock price dropped. There has been no increase in volume on the recent upmove indicating a possibility of further downside.</li>
</ul>



Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) could replace Nanya Technology (2408 TT) in the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. Airtac International (1590 TT) has possibly just avoided deletion.
Short interest has been dropping in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) as the stock has rallied, while cumulative excess volume has continued to increase steadily.
Shorts have increased in Nanya Technology (2408 TT) as the stock price dropped. There has been no increase in volume on the recent upmove indicating a possibility of further downside.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele, Chunghwa Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele, Chunghwa Telecom.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

Taiwan

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Chang Hwa Commercial Bank (2801 TT)

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank - April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

April income figures show slowing growth compared with March. NIM compression is a concern and potentially rising credit costs, unlike the recent...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

PharmaEssentia could replace Nanya Tech in the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Shorts have been covering Pharmaessentia and building positions in Nanya Tech....

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank - April Monthly Profit Figures Suggest Slowing Growth

April income figures show slowing growth compared with March. NIM compression is a concern and potentially rising credit costs, unlike the recent...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade

The ETF could have 6 adds and 5 deletes in Dec. There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 15% and a...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

PharmaEssentia could replace Nanya Tech in the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Shorts have been covering Pharmaessentia and building positions in Nanya Tech....

Brian Freitas

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Fortune Elec, Hon Hai, Far Eastone Tele,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Big Impact and US$3bn Round-Trip Trade