Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare, which have been moving quite tightly recently, experienced a significant level of divergence last Friday.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/646/original/1.png?1632020309" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230646"></figure></section><p>Celltrion vs. Celltrion Healthcare is at -1.72σ on a 20-day moving average as of last Friday's close. This level of price divergence is the largest since early June.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/647/original/image_95913332721632020426124.png?1632020428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230647"></figure><p>For the past month, Celltrion Healthcare's earnings estimates have been adjusted more significantly than those of Celltrion. On a local street consensus basis, Celltrion's 2022 net profit was revised down by 3.16%, while Celltrion Healthcare's was downgraded by 6.75%. Nevertheless, Celltrion Healthcare's 12M forward PER rose 3.69%p higher than that of Celltrion.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
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<col width="70">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"FY2022E"}'>FY2022E</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, T"}'>Celltrion, T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, T-1M"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Celltrion, T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MoM Δ"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>MoM Δ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion H, T"}'>Celltrion H, T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion H, T-1M"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Celltrion H, T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MoM Δ"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>MoM Δ</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NP to controlling stake"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>Consensus net profit to controlling stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":830}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/10">₩830.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":857.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/10">₩857.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.03161824757904565}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-3.16%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":370}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩370.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":396.8}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩396.8B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.06754032258064518}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-6.75%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER "}'>12M forward PER</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":47.67}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]">47.67x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46.68}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]">46.68x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.021208226221079735}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>+2.12%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":52.29}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'>52.29x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":49.42}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'>49.42x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.058073654390934794}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>+5.81%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare, which have been moving quite tightly recently, experienced a significant level of divergence last Friday.Celltrion vs. Celltrion Healthcare is at -1.72σ on a 20-day moving average as of last Friday's close. This level of price divergence is the largest since early June.For the past month, Celltrion Healthcare's earnings estimates have been adjusted more significantly than those of Celltrion. On a local street consensus basis, Celltrion's 2022 net profit was revised down by 3.16%, while Celltrion Healthcare's was downgraded by 6.75%. Nevertheless, Celltrion Healthcare's 12M forward PER rose 3.69%p higher than that of Celltrion.











FY2022E
Celltrion, T
Celltrion, T-1M
MoM Δ
Celltrion H, T
Celltrion H, T-1M
MoM Δ


Consensus net profit to controlling stake
₩830.0B
₩857.1B
-3.16%
₩370.0B
₩396.8B
-6.75%


12M forward PER
47.67x
46.68x
+2.12%
52.29x
49.42x
+5.81%

Source: FnGuide



Last Friday's Price Divergence in Celltrion Vs. Celltrion Healthcare

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The KRX has announced the results of the September review of the BBIG indices and the changes will become effective after the close of trading on 9 September.</p><p>These are the changes to the indices:</p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Secondary Battery ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chunbo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27848:1" rel="noopener">Chunbo Co Ltd (278280 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>Bio ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-pharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12476:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS)</a> join the index, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinpoong-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7296:1" rel="noopener">Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seegene-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11483:1" rel="noopener">Seegene Inc (096530 KS)</a>. Additionally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> in the top 3 stocks.</li>
<li>Internet ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kg-inicis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5234:1" rel="noopener">KG Inicis Co Ltd (035600 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rsupport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14783:1" rel="noopener">Rsupport Co Ltd (131370 KS)</a> </li>
<li>Game ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/devsisters-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14096:1" rel="noopener">Devsisters (194480 KS)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wemade-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9940:1" rel="noopener">Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neptune-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28826:1" rel="noopener">Neptune Company (217270 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>BBIG ETF: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul><p>KRX has broken its own rules (everyone does it, so join in!) by including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> even though the stock listed post the July-end cut off and there is no provision of Fast Entry in the index methodology.</p><p>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a> while the stocks with the largest outflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-biopharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28966:1" rel="noopener">SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3970:1" rel="noopener">SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> is also a Fast Entry to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and there will be passive buying from those trackers as well.</p>

The KRX has announced the results of the September review of the BBIG indices and the changes will become effective after the close of trading on 9 September.These are the changes to the indices:
Secondary Battery ETF: SK IE Technology (361610 KS) replaces Chunbo Co Ltd (278280 KS)

Bio ETF: SK Bioscience (302440 KS) and Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) join the index, replacing Shinpoong Pharmaceutical (019170 KS) and Seegene Inc (096530 KS). Additionally, SK Bioscience (302440 KS) replaces SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) in the top 3 stocks.
Internet ETF: KG Inicis Co Ltd (035600 KS) replaces Rsupport Co Ltd (131370 KS) 
Game ETF:  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) and Devsisters (194480 KS) replace Wemade Co., Ltd. (112040 KS) and Neptune Company (217270 KS)

BBIG ETF: SK Bioscience (302440 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) replace SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) and Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS).
KRX has broken its own rules (everyone does it, so join in!) by including  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) even though the stock listed post the July-end cut off and there is no provision of Fast Entry in the index methodology.Stocks with the largest inflows are SK Bioscience (302440 KS),  Krafton Inc (259960 KS), SK IE Technology (361610 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) while the stocks with the largest outflows are Kakao Games Corp (293490 KS), SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS), Posco Chemical Co Ltd (003670 KS), SKC Co Ltd (011790 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS). Krafton Inc (259960 KS) is also a Fast Entry to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and there will be passive buying from those trackers as well.

KRX BBIG Index Rebalance: Krafton, SK Bioscience, SK IE Tech Included (Among Others)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.</p>

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The "K-Stop movement" made its first real move on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hlb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16969:1" rel="noopener">HLB Inc (028300 KS) </a>today on July 15th. The K-Stop movement refers to "Korean Game Stop movement," where many Korean retail investors have gathered together to actively protest and trade against the institutional investors that have put short positions on various Korean stocks.</p>
<p>Similar to many retail investors in US that have traded heavily shorted stocks such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop (GME US) </a>and AMC, many Korean retail investors also want to capitalize on such potential buying of heavily shorted stocks in Korea. </p>
</div>


The "K-Stop movement" made its first real move on HLB Inc (028300 KS) today on July 15th. The K-Stop movement refers to "Korean Game Stop movement," where many Korean retail investors have gathered together to actively protest and trade against the institutional investors that have put short positions on various Korean stocks.
Similar to many retail investors in US that have traded heavily shorted stocks such as GameStop (GME US) and AMC, many Korean retail investors also want to capitalize on such potential buying of heavily shorted stocks in Korea. 


The Rise of the K-Stop Movement: Makes Its First Real Move on HLB

<p>Celltrion is still struggling to catch up with Celltrion Healthcare. <strong>The Celltrion (Long) &amp; Celltrion Healthcare (Short) pair continues to be in a diversion of near -2.0σ</strong>. Celltrion made a 2+% gain earlier today but is now back to the previous close.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 222.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 108.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 112.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>T-3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 222.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-8]C[0]">Celltrion, Inc. / Celltrion Healthcare</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 108.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.7681341462103701}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'><strong>-1.77</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 112.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.0626425593335966}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-2.06</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.3625908704099981}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-0.36</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.02927230344234097}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-0.03</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 723.636px;">Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Celltrion has recovered a bit this year relative to Celltrion Healthcare since the harsh diversion that started late last year with the progress of a merger plan. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/207/918/original/Celltrion+%26+Celltrion+Healthcare.png?1621571531" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="207918"></figure><p>But the duo's price ratio (Celltrion in the numerator for Long and Celltrion Healthcare in the denominator for Short) is still <strong>8.73% below the 180-day average</strong> and 25.73% down from the 180-day high.</p></section><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-52]C[0]">Celltrion, Inc.</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current sigma on a 20-day moving average"}'><strong>Current sigma on a 20-day moving average</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.7681341462103701}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$B"&amp;R70C[0])'><strong>-1.77</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current price ratio"}'>Current price ratio</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.317909168808912}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$E"&amp;R71C[0])'>2.31791</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day mean"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'><strong>%Δ to 180-day mean</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.08731840377275689}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$B"&amp;R71C[0])'><strong>-8.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day high"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'><strong>%Δ to 180-day high</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.25733095771721204}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$C"&amp;R71C[0])'><strong>-25.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day low"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>%Δ to 180-day low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.12060069168315744}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$D"&amp;R71C[0])'>12.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The Long/Short trade on the Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare pair features a pretty tight correlation and cointegration, estimated by a 180-day price Δ beta. Their 180-day correlation coefficient sits at +0.84215. Also, their 180-day price change beta is 0.76771, which also implies a hedge ratio for a short position on Celltrion Healthcare.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="200">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 174.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 1 (long)"}'>Comp 1 (Long)</td>
<td style="width: 212.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 2 (short)"}'>Comp 2 (Short)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 129.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation coefficient"}'>180-day correlation coefficient</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 144.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)"}'>Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 174.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}'>Celltrion, Inc.</td>
<td style="width: 212.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd"}'>Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 129.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8421486059768682}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]'><strong>0.84215</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 144.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7677091119717393}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[2]C[-2]"><strong>0.76771</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="width: 174.545px;">Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Celltrion is still struggling to catch up with Celltrion Healthcare. The Celltrion (Long) &amp; Celltrion Healthcare (Short) pair continues to be in a diversion of near -2.0σ. Celltrion made a 2+% gain earlier today but is now back to the previous close.










Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average
Today
T-1
T-2
T-3


Celltrion, Inc. / Celltrion Healthcare
-1.77
-2.06
-0.36
-0.03

Source: KRX

Celltrion has recovered a bit this year relative to Celltrion Healthcare since the harsh diversion that started late last year with the progress of a merger plan. But the duo's price ratio (Celltrion in the numerator for Long and Celltrion Healthcare in the denominator for Short) is still 8.73% below the 180-day average and 25.73% down from the 180-day high.





Celltrion, Inc.

Current sigma on a 20-day moving average
-1.77


Current price ratio
2.31791


%Δ to 180-day mean
-8.73%


%Δ to 180-day high
-25.73%


%Δ to 180-day low
12.06%

Source: KRX

The Long/Short trade on the Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare pair features a pretty tight correlation and cointegration, estimated by a 180-day price Δ beta. Their 180-day correlation coefficient sits at +0.84215. Also, their 180-day price change beta is 0.76771, which also implies a hedge ratio for a short position on Celltrion Healthcare.








Comp 1 (Long)
Comp 2 (Short)
180-day correlation coefficient
Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)


Celltrion, Inc.
Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd
0.84215
0.76771

Source: KRX



Celltrion Merger Situation & Long/Short on the Celltrion Duo

South Korea

Celltrion Pharm Inc. manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products.  The Company products inclue drugs for for hepatic diseases, digestion, diabetes, cold and fever, anti-inflammatory, and veterinary medical products.  Celltrion also provides pharmaceutical raw materials.

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