Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Celltrion 3-Way Merger Timing & Trading Approach Aiming for Immediate Short Covering

Celltrion Pair: Entry Point on Latest Diversion

Celltrion Merger Announcement: Details, Questionable Aspects, & Trading Dynamics

A Merger of Three Celltrion Group Companies + Formation of a Celltrion Healthcare Holdings

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Celltrion is still struggling to catch up with Celltrion Healthcare. <strong>The Celltrion (Long) &amp; Celltrion Healthcare (Short) pair continues to be in a diversion of near -2.0σ</strong>. Celltrion made a 2+% gain earlier today but is now back to the previous close.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td style="width: 222.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 108.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 112.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>T-3</td>
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<td style="width: 222.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-8]C[0]">Celltrion, Inc. / Celltrion Healthcare</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 108.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.7681341462103701}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$2")'><strong>-1.77</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 112.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.0626425593335966}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$3")'>-2.06</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.3636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.3625908704099981}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$4")'>-0.36</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 100px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.02927230344234097}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect(R[0]C8&amp;"!$I$5")'>-0.03</td>
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<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 723.636px;">Source: KRX</td></tr>
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</table><p>Celltrion has recovered a bit this year relative to Celltrion Healthcare since the harsh diversion that started late last year with the progress of a merger plan. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/207/918/original/Celltrion+%26+Celltrion+Healthcare.png?1621571531" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="207918"></figure><p>But the duo's price ratio (Celltrion in the numerator for Long and Celltrion Healthcare in the denominator for Short) is still <strong>8.73% below the 180-day average</strong> and 25.73% down from the 180-day high.</p></section><table class="table table-striped">
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<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-52]C[0]">Celltrion, Inc.</td></tr>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current sigma on a 20-day moving average"}'><strong>Current sigma on a 20-day moving average</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.7681341462103701}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$B"&amp;R70C[0])'><strong>-1.77</strong></td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current price ratio"}'>Current price ratio</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.317909168808912}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$E"&amp;R71C[0])'>2.31791</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day mean"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'><strong>%Δ to 180-day mean</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.08731840377275689}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$B"&amp;R71C[0])'><strong>-8.73%</strong></td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day high"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'><strong>%Δ to 180-day high</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.25733095771721204}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$C"&amp;R71C[0])'><strong>-25.73%</strong></td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"%Δ to 180-day low"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>%Δ to 180-day low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.12060069168315744}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula='=indirect("$D"&amp;R71C[0])'>12.06%</td>
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<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
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</table><p>The Long/Short trade on the Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare pair features a pretty tight correlation and cointegration, estimated by a 180-day price Δ beta. Their 180-day correlation coefficient sits at +0.84215. Also, their 180-day price change beta is 0.76771, which also implies a hedge ratio for a short position on Celltrion Healthcare.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td style="width: 174.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 1 (long)"}'>Comp 1 (Long)</td>
<td style="width: 212.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 2 (short)"}'>Comp 2 (Short)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 129.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation coefficient"}'>180-day correlation coefficient</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 144.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)"}'>Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)</td>
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<td style="width: 174.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}'>Celltrion, Inc.</td>
<td style="width: 212.727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd"}'>Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 129.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8421486059768682}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]'><strong>0.84215</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 144.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7677091119717393}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00000",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[2]C[-2]"><strong>0.76771</strong></td>
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<tr><td colspan="4" style="width: 174.545px;">Source: KRX</td></tr>
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</table>

Celltrion is still struggling to catch up with Celltrion Healthcare. The Celltrion (Long) &amp; Celltrion Healthcare (Short) pair continues to be in a diversion of near -2.0σ. Celltrion made a 2+% gain earlier today but is now back to the previous close.










Sigma (σ) on a 20-day moving average
Today
T-1
T-2
T-3


Celltrion, Inc. / Celltrion Healthcare
-1.77
-2.06
-0.36
-0.03

Source: KRX

Celltrion has recovered a bit this year relative to Celltrion Healthcare since the harsh diversion that started late last year with the progress of a merger plan. But the duo's price ratio (Celltrion in the numerator for Long and Celltrion Healthcare in the denominator for Short) is still 8.73% below the 180-day average and 25.73% down from the 180-day high.





Celltrion, Inc.

Current sigma on a 20-day moving average
-1.77


Current price ratio
2.31791


%Δ to 180-day mean
-8.73%


%Δ to 180-day high
-25.73%


%Δ to 180-day low
12.06%

Source: KRX

The Long/Short trade on the Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare pair features a pretty tight correlation and cointegration, estimated by a 180-day price Δ beta. Their 180-day correlation coefficient sits at +0.84215. Also, their 180-day price change beta is 0.76771, which also implies a hedge ratio for a short position on Celltrion Healthcare.








Comp 1 (Long)
Comp 2 (Short)
180-day correlation coefficient
Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)


Celltrion, Inc.
Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd
0.84215
0.76771

Source: KRX



Celltrion Merger Situation & Long/Short on the Celltrion Duo

Celltrion Inc

Celltrion Merger Situation & Long/Short on the Celltrion Duo