Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.</li><li>Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.</li><li>Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.</li><li>The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.</li></ul>

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win.Today’s strong USD looks, in the end, to be our currency and our problem.Keep an eye out for dangerously destructive economic policies, but don’t use that as an excuse to avoid the asset class entirely.The yen and euro are at their cheapest levels in decades and hedging emerging market equities would be an expensive proposition even if the currencies weren’t generally cheap versus the USD.

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

<p>The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&amp;P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&amp;P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking with them until we see evidence of change. To that end, we are watching 1.38-1.45% on the 10-year Treasury yield; as long as the 10-year is below this level we expect to see growth and large-caps continue to outperform, however a break above 1.45% would likely signal a shift in favor of value and small-caps.</p><p>Charts Highlighted: SPX, WTI Crude Oil, XOP, US Dollar, DXJ, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, METC, HNRG, CCJ, PALAF, DNN, UUUU, UEC, LEU, ATCO, MATX, SBLK, CMRE, GSL, GNK, NMM, EGLE, DSX, SB, and ESEA</p>

The market environment remains very mixed, with constant Sector rotations resulting in very few Sectors out- or under-performing for sustained periods. At the same time, market dynamics give us little-to-no reason to be bearish (aside from the simple fact that the S&amp;P 500 has not pulled back even 5% for over 6 months). Growth Sectors (Communications, Technology) and large-caps (S&amp;P 500) have been the primary winners and we recommend sticking with them until we see evidence of change. To that end, we are watching 1.38-1.45% on the 10-year Treasury yield; as long as the 10-year is below this level we expect to see growth and large-caps continue to outperform, however a break above 1.45% would likely signal a shift in favor of value and small-caps.Charts Highlighted: SPX, WTI Crude Oil, XOP, US Dollar, DXJ, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, METC, HNRG, CCJ, PALAF, DNN, UUUU, UEC, LEU, ATCO, MATX, SBLK, CMRE, GSL, GNK, NMM, EGLE, DSX, SB, and ESEA

S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength; Buying Coal, Uranium Miners, & Dry-Bulk Shippers

Japan

WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index. The Fund invests in dividend paying companies incorporated in Japan and listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, while neutralizing the risk of the Japanese yen's fluctuations relative to the USD.

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Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq (DXJ US)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

GMO Q2 2022 Quarterly Letter

Equity investors in countries with overvalued currencies have two ways to lose and those with undervalued currencies have two ways to win. Today’s...

Fund Newsletters

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Near Support; Watching Energy For Strength; Buying Coal, Uranium Miners, & Dry-Bulk Shippers

On August 31 we noted to expect some consolidation in the S&P 500 after it hit our 4535 initial target. The S&P 500 is now testing key support at...

Vermilion Research

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