Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NKY +0.80%WoW;  TOPIX +0.91%WoW;  TSE Mothers +3.0%WoW.  3 days up; 2 days down this week as small caps; high valuation and tech stocks rallied</li>
<li>PM Kishida orders additional fiscal stimulus of ¥29.1 trillion.  Including other private sector investment and funding, the total stimulus size to exceed ¥71 trillion.</li>
<li>Bank of Japan maintains their ultra looks monetary policy in place at the end of their 2-day policy meeting</li>
</ul>


NKY +0.80%WoW;  TOPIX +0.91%WoW;  TSE Mothers +3.0%WoW.  3 days up; 2 days down this week as small caps; high valuation and tech stocks rallied
PM Kishida orders additional fiscal stimulus of ¥29.1 trillion.  Including other private sector investment and funding, the total stimulus size to exceed ¥71 trillion.
Bank of Japan maintains their ultra looks monetary policy in place at the end of their 2-day policy meeting


Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Canon's reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.</li>
<li>If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.</li>
<li>Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.</li>
</ul>


Canon's reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.
If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.
Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update - Look to the Next Cycle

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> results were better than Softbank Corp's and KDDI's. The good "drift trade" may still be to be long NTT vs a basket of KDDI and Softbank Corp. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality (FHT SP)</a> Scheme failed.  The non-vocal minority simply didn't show up. Maybe apathy. Maybe a holiday season. Maybe lack of premium paid encouraged people to not vote.</li>
<li>In a surprise move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a>- or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) results were better than Softbank Corp's and KDDI's. The good "drift trade" may still be to be long NTT vs a basket of KDDI and Softbank Corp. 
The Frasers Hospitality (FHT SP) Scheme failed.  The non-vocal minority simply didn't show up. Maybe apathy. Maybe a holiday season. Maybe lack of premium paid encouraged people to not vote.
In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK)- or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> has announced two buyback programs this year of ¥50bn each. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)</a> announced one in May for ¥30bn. </li>
<li>The result is 2.9% bought back vs 4.4%. The accretion nod goes to Ricoh. But so does the overhang nod going forward.  Effissimo+Crossholders is 40% for Ricoh. Mid20s for Canon.</li>
<li>Buyback impact-related trade timing has worked for Canon. Ricoh's buyback ends imminently. There may be a trade to do here.</li>
</ul>



Canon Inc (7751 JP) has announced two buyback programs this year of ¥50bn each. Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP) announced one in May for ¥30bn. 
The result is 2.9% bought back vs 4.4%. The accretion nod goes to Ricoh. But so does the overhang nod going forward.  Effissimo+Crossholders is 40% for Ricoh. Mid20s for Canon.
Buyback impact-related trade timing has worked for Canon. Ricoh's buyback ends imminently. There may be a trade to do here.


Canon Buyback Done, Ricoh's Done Shortly, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Program

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> is not blowing out the lights versus peers, but it's relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If Kazuo Inamori's shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> currently trades at a 62% discount to NAV, a level last seen around the Covid lows in May 2020.</li>
<li>Washington and Beijing reach an agreement allowing US regulators access to audits of Chinese companies listed on American exchanges.  However, US regulators remain cautious about the success of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kyocera (6971 JP) is not blowing out the lights versus peers, but it's relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If Kazuo Inamori's shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.

Hang Lung (10 HK) currently trades at a 62% discount to NAV, a level last seen around the Covid lows in May 2020.
Washington and Beijing reach an agreement allowing US regulators access to audits of Chinese companies listed on American exchanges.  However, US regulators remain cautious about the success of the deal.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, Hang Lung Group, CSRC/PCAOB Audit Terms, MACA, Nitro Software

Japan

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

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Canon Inc (7751 JP)

Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon

An overveiw of the week in Japan. In addtion to key stock movements, we highlight the key market/macro news in Japan this week. We also highlight...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update - Look to the Next Cycle

Commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could begin in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle. That main beneficiary would be...

Scott Foster

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Frasers Hospitality, Genting/Macau, United Tractor, Arb Shockers

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Canon Buyback Done, Ricoh's Done Shortly, Back To Your Regularly Scheduled Program

Canon's buyback ended at end-August. Ricoh's ends shortly. The post-buyback selling 'shadow' on Canon should be finished shortly. Ricoh will simply...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, Hang Lung Group, CSRC/PCAOB Audit Terms, MACA, Nitro Software

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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