Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fanuc’s Q2 operating income surged 25% year-on-year, but the beat was driven by a one-time 9 billion yen unrealized profit, raising concerns about sustainability.</li>
<li>Total orders fell from 198 billion yen to 186 billion yen, with a notable slowdown in Factory Automation orders, particularly in China.</li>
<li>Despite inventory reductions, Fanuc’s inventory/sales ratio remains elevated at 43%; shares down 9% since Q1 and underperforming the broader index for the year.</li>
</ul>


Fanuc’s Q2 operating income surged 25% year-on-year, but the beat was driven by a one-time 9 billion yen unrealized profit, raising concerns about sustainability.
Total orders fell from 198 billion yen to 186 billion yen, with a notable slowdown in Factory Automation orders, particularly in China.
Despite inventory reductions, Fanuc’s inventory/sales ratio remains elevated at 43%; shares down 9% since Q1 and underperforming the broader index for the year.


Fanuc (6954) | Q2 Profit Boost Masked by One-Time Gains

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Longsys-Kingston JV delay and uncertain future of Shanghai plant sale causing concern in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>Kaynes SemiCon secures India's first paying OSAT customer, reaching a significant milestone in advanced semiconductor packaging.</li><li>Evalue sets ambitious goal to dominate Taiwan's EV charging market with 30% share by 2026, while AWS sparks cloud battle in SEA.</li></ul>

Longsys-Kingston JV delay and uncertain future of Shanghai plant sale causing concern in the semiconductor industry.Kaynes SemiCon secures India's first paying OSAT customer, reaching a significant milestone in advanced semiconductor packaging.Evalue sets ambitious goal to dominate Taiwan's EV charging market with 30% share by 2026, while AWS sparks cloud battle in SEA.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Aug-2024): Longsys-Kingston venture stalls, Shanghai sale uncertain.

<ul>
<li>Fanuc reported slightly better-than-expected Q1 sales and OP forecasts, mainly due to a recovery in sales of FA equipment</li>
<li>Fanuc's results are consistent with a bottoming out of Japan's machine tool orders in the first half of the year</li>
<li>We turn bullish on the stock given the cyclical bottoming out of orders and margins. However, the stock is still not "cheap" and the company faces a number of challenges</li>
</ul>


Fanuc reported slightly better-than-expected Q1 sales and OP forecasts, mainly due to a recovery in sales of FA equipment
Fanuc's results are consistent with a bottoming out of Japan's machine tool orders in the first half of the year
We turn bullish on the stock given the cyclical bottoming out of orders and margins. However, the stock is still not "cheap" and the company faces a number of challenges


Fanuc (6954) | Improved Orders and Margins Amid Long-Term Challenges

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

<ul>
<li>2Q earnings miss and full year guidance cut - negative surprise to the market</li>
<li>Core FA orders down sequentially QoQ; Weak FA negative for overall OPM</li>
<li>Maintain bearish stance as negative YoY Machine Tool orders yet to come. </li>
</ul>


2Q earnings miss and full year guidance cut - negative surprise to the market
Core FA orders down sequentially QoQ; Weak FA negative for overall OPM
Maintain bearish stance as negative YoY Machine Tool orders yet to come. 


Fanuc (6954 JP) – Let the Derating Begin

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

Fanuc (6954) | Q2 Profit Boost Masked by One-Time Gains

Fanuc's Q2 operating income up 25% due to one-time profit, but concerns arise over sustainability. Orders down, inventory/sales ratio high, shares...

Mark Chadwick

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Aug-2024): Longsys-Kingston venture stalls, Shanghai sale uncertain.

Longsys-Kingston JV delayed, Kaynes SemiCon secures India's first paying OSAT customer, Evalue targets Taiwan EV market dominance, AWS vs. cloud...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Fanuc (6954) | Improved Orders and Margins Amid Long-Term Challenges

Fanuc's Q1 results show improvement in sales and operating profit forecasts, underpinned by a turnaround in Japan's machine tool orders. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Fanuc (6954 JP) – Let the Derating Begin

FA weakness to weigh down on Fanuc's earnings and valuations in the coming quarters. The YoY turn in Machine Tool orders is yet to come, ...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fanuc (6954) | Q2 Profit Boost Masked by One-Time Gains

​Fanuc's Q2 operating income up 25% due to one-time profit, but concerns arise over sustainability. Orders down, inventory/sales ratio high, shares...

Mark Chadwick

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (27-Aug-2024): Longsys-Kingston venture stalls, Shanghai sale uncertain.

Longsys-Kingston JV delayed, Kaynes SemiCon secures India's first paying OSAT customer, Evalue targets Taiwan EV market dominance, AWS vs. cloud...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Fanuc (6954) | Improved Orders and Margins Amid Long-Term Challenges

​Fanuc's Q1 results show improvement in sales and operating profit forecasts, underpinned by a turnaround in Japan's machine tool orders. Bullish...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Fanuc (6954 JP) – Let the Derating Begin

FA weakness to weigh down on Fanuc's earnings and valuations in the coming quarters. The YoY turn in Machine Tool orders is yet to come, ...

Mark Chadwick

Fanuc's Q2 operating income up 25% due to one-time profit, but concerns arise over sustainability. Orders down, inventory/sales ratio high, shares...

Fanuc's Q1 results show improvement in sales and operating profit forecasts, underpinned by a turnaround in Japan's machine tool orders. Bullish...