External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

<ul><li>The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.</li><li>We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.</li><li>USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and injected renewed volatility into markets.We had expected the USD to ease somewhat in H2 as cyclical factors turn less supportive and while USD losses have moderated somewhat in recent trading, the net impact is still a somewhat weaker USD than we had anticipated at this stage.USD weakness can be largely explained by the following. Firstly, US yields eased in July and fell sharply in August following the release of a weaker-than-expected US July employment report. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.</li><li>The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point in sentiment, with the August CPI report landing in our inboxes at 14:30 CPH time.The debate between Harris and Trump seems to have set the tone in markets leading up to the event, with the USD selling off as markets agree that Trump is likely the more bullish of the two on USD.

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.</li><li>Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.</li><li>Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.</li></ul>

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio.Examining our underlying model package, we’ve identified two major themes worth noting for the month ahead: the sudden weakness in China and the impending drawdown in USD liquidity.Starting with China, we’ve highlighted how pollution levels are plummeting, while congestion data from ports, roads, and metros declined significantly in August.

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through...

Scotiabank

Monthly FX Outlook – September 2024

The US dollar (USD) has underperformed in the third quarter, reflecting a constellation of factors that have shaken up currency trading and...

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Markets Are Positioned for Softness (in Rates)

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. A lot is happening in markets ahead of what could be a significant turning point...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Preparing for a nasty September due to liquidity

It’s been a relatively uneventful week, and we haven’t been overly active as we await September trends for our portfolio. Examining our underlying...

Steno Research

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