External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.</li><li>As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.</li><li>And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.</li></ul>

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Economic data from the US has been received by markets with a bit more skepticism after the recessionary ISM services report, and while the NFP report—judging by the markets’ reaction—made everyone from equities to fixed income happy, the overall picture of the US economy is still admittedly gloomier than we anticipated a few weeks back However, with increased access to real-time gauges of the economy, there is currently no reason to worry about a recession—or at least no reason to trade it.</li><li>Recessions are always triggered by something; the economy almost never slow-drifts into one, which makes it impossible to time.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Economic data from the US has been received by markets with a bit more skepticism after the recessionary ISM services report, and while the NFP report—judging by the markets’ reaction—made everyone from equities to fixed income happy, the overall picture of the US economy is still admittedly gloomier than we anticipated a few weeks back However, with increased access to real-time gauges of the economy, there is currently no reason to worry about a recession—or at least no reason to trade it.Recessions are always triggered by something; the economy almost never slow-drifts into one, which makes it impossible to time.

Positioning Watch – No recession betting in markets yet

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM Watch series, where we focus on the diverging economic trends in China, where local consumption seems to be on the floor, while the export sector is still gaining momentum.</li><li>Additionally, an interesting niche case in Panama requires some attention.</li><li>The USDCNY pressures are more fierce than they have been at any time since the pandemic, and we are once again approaching the intervention zone around 7.30 in USDCNY.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch series, where we focus on the diverging economic trends in China, where local consumption seems to be on the floor, while the export sector is still gaining momentum.Additionally, an interesting niche case in Panama requires some attention.The USDCNY pressures are more fierce than they have been at any time since the pandemic, and we are once again approaching the intervention zone around 7.30 in USDCNY.

EM Watch: A Chinese tale of two very different realities

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioned

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – No recession betting in markets yet

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Economic data from the US has been received by markets with a bit more...

Steno Research

EM Watch: A Chinese tale of two very different realities

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch series, where we focus on the diverging economic trends in China, where local consumption seems to be on the floor,...

Steno Research

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