HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has launched an IPO to raise up to US$368 million.  </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117721" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-latest-updates-as-the-ipo-process-restarts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136469" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts</a>. </li>
<li>The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO. </li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has launched an IPO to raise up to US$368 million.  
We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case and ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts. 
The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap, Xiaomi etc reported their Apr 2024 sales volumes on 1 May 2024.</li><li>Total sales volume combined rose 43% YoY (ranging from -31% to +546%) and 2% MoM (ranging from -14% to +32%).</li><li>Li Auto, Xpeng miss, NIO beat. It appears to us that the weak sales of the Mega has spread into Li Auto’s other models.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap, Xiaomi etc reported their Apr 2024 sales volumes on 1 May 2024.Total sales volume combined rose 43% YoY (ranging from -31% to +546%) and 2% MoM (ranging from -14% to +32%).Li Auto, Xpeng miss, NIO beat. It appears to us that the weak sales of the Mega has spread into Li Auto’s other models.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Apr NEV sales beat; Price war continues

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres


Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>300274 SZ/601012 CH: A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s Shanxi factory may benefit the entire supply chain.(///)</li>
<li>1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US : Tesla passed all 4 national automotive data security requirements, Musk made a surprise visit to China and was received by Li Qiang （/////）</li>
<li>1810 HK: Pony.ai formed JV with Toyota to prepare for robotaxi（/）</li>
</ul>


300274 SZ/601012 CH: A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s Shanxi factory may benefit the entire supply chain.(///)
1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US : Tesla passed all 4 national automotive data security requirements, Musk made a surprise visit to China and was received by Li Qiang （/////）
1810 HK: Pony.ai formed JV with Toyota to prepare for robotaxi（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei

China

BYD Company Limited manufactures automotive products. The Company produces ordinary passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other products. BYD also operates battery making, rail transportation construction, and other businesses.

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BYD (002594 CH)

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ZEEKR (ZK US) IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Auto - Apr NEV sales beat; Price war continues

Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap, Xiaomi etc reported their Apr 2024 sales volumes on 1 May...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300274 SZ/601012 CH/1810 HK /XPEV US/LI US/300750 SZ/1211 HK/BZ US/Huawei

Tesla passed automotive data security requirements, Musk visit to China，FSD is about to enter China. A fire broke out in JinkoSolar’s factory. CATL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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