Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

The major Japanese apparel firms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/world-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27437:1" rel="noopener">World Co Ltd (3612 JP),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onward-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11370:1" rel="noopener">Onward Holdings (8016 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanyo-shokai-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12308:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)</a> continue to struggle.The key problems are: 1) declining apparel sales for their middle market brands and 2) the erosion of apparel sales in department stores – on which they remain overly dependent.In addition, department stores are increasingly taking over sales space for their own purposes, space that used to be controlled by these same apparel firms.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12308" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12308:1" rel="noopener">Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP)</a> is one of the worst afflicted with declining sales since losing the licence for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/burberry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21849:1" rel="noopener">Burberry (BRBY LN)</a> four years ago.As well as investing in its own fashion labels, Sanyo is also looking for overseas brands to distribute. The latest is Ecolaf from Madrid.It is unlikely to be enough but may mean an end to the decline in sales.

The major Japanese apparel firms like World Co Ltd (3612 JP), Onward Holdings (8016 JP) and Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP) continue to struggle.The key problems are: 1) declining apparel sales for their middle market brands and 2) the erosion of apparel sales in department stores – on which they remain overly dependent.In addition, department stores are increasingly taking over sales space for their own purposes, space that used to be controlled by these same apparel firms.Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP) is one of the worst afflicted with declining sales since losing the licence for Burberry (BRBY LN) four years ago.As well as investing in its own fashion labels, Sanyo is also looking for overseas brands to distribute. The latest is Ecolaf from Madrid.It is unlikely to be enough but may mean an end to the decline in sales.

Sanyo Shokai Signs Joint Venture with Spanish Brand Ecolaf but It Won't Stop the Rot

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

The Italian luxury yacht maker, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferretti-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28335:1" rel="noopener">Ferretti SpA (FER IM)</a>  has filed for an initial public offering on the Milan Stock Exchange to raise net proceeds of approximately EUR120m at the midpoint of the IPO price range. The company makes luxury yachts and speedboats under several well-known brands including Wally, Ferreti Yachts, Pershing, Itama and Riva. The company previously traded publicly, however, it was delisted in 2003 and was acquired by private equity firm Weichai Group (China) in 2012. Weichai Group currently owns approximately 86% of the company while Piero Ferrari (through F Investments SA) holds 11.14% of the company. The Chinese group managed to turn around the company into a profitable entity in 2016 while it also helped pay-off the debt.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><h2>Ferreti IPO Details</h2></td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>New Shares Offered</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">40,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Existing Shares Offered</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">47,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Greenshoe Option</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">                       8,700,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total Shares Outstanding</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">290,734,954</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Offer as a % of Total Shares Outstanding (incl. greenshoe)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Offer Price (EUR)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2.5-3.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Offer Period</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">01-10th October</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Price Setting</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">by 15th October</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Trading Date</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">16th October</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td style="text-align: right;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IPO Price - Midpoint (EUR)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Market Capitalisation (EURm)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">901.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Enterprise Value (EURm)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">976.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: Company Disclosures, LSR</div>Ferreti’s revenues have grown over time while the company also has shifted its focus to high-priced, more profitable segments such as manufacturing large-foot yachts. The company currently operates exclusively in the inboard segment of the market and it acquired Wally Yachts in early 2019, through which the company is planning on entering the outboard and sail segments of the market. In terms of the company’s profitability, it has been generating profits over the last three years and we expect the company margins to improve in the next 2-3 years due to a shift in product mix towards high-margin yachts. On the other hand, the company’s borrowings have significantly increased over the last two years while Ferreti also owns its parent EUR211m in debt (not included under debt). We are concerned about the increasing debt position of the company. Ferreti operates in the luxury goods and services market which is not recession proof and thus at the IPO price range, the stock looks overpriced compared to its peers in the luxury goods/service market.Investors are increasingly worrying about another economic downturn as the wealthy have suddenly pulled back their spending on luxury items. Even during the last recession, the order books were healthy and strong at the beginning of the recession, however, there were cancellations and delays which caused a significant decline in the industry’s revenue. The volatile markets and slowdown in global economic growth have caused a decline in luxury spending which puts this IPO at risk of underperformance.We discuss the details below.

The Italian luxury yacht maker, Ferretti SpA (FER IM)  has filed for an initial public offering on the Milan Stock Exchange to raise net proceeds of approximately EUR120m at the midpoint of the IPO price range. The company makes luxury yachts and speedboats under several well-known brands including Wally, Ferreti Yachts, Pershing, Itama and Riva. The company previously traded publicly, however, it was delisted in 2003 and was acquired by private equity firm Weichai Group (China) in 2012. Weichai Group currently owns approximately 86% of the company while Piero Ferrari (through F Investments SA) holds 11.14% of the company. The Chinese group managed to turn around the company into a profitable entity in 2016 while it also helped pay-off the debt.

Ferreti IPO Details
 


New Shares Offered
40,000,000


Existing Shares Offered
47,000,000


Greenshoe Option
                       8,700,000


Total Shares Outstanding
290,734,954


Offer as a % of Total Shares Outstanding (incl. greenshoe)
33%


Offer Price (EUR)
2.5-3.7


Offer Period
01-10th October


Price Setting
by 15th October


Trading Date
16th October


 
 


IPO Price - Midpoint (EUR)
3.1


Market Capitalisation (EURm)
901.3


Enterprise Value (EURm)
976.7

Source: Company Disclosures, LSRFerreti’s revenues have grown over time while the company also has shifted its focus to high-priced, more profitable segments such as manufacturing large-foot yachts. The company currently operates exclusively in the inboard segment of the market and it acquired Wally Yachts in early 2019, through which the company is planning on entering the outboard and sail segments of the market. In terms of the company’s profitability, it has been generating profits over the last three years and we expect the company margins to improve in the next 2-3 years due to a shift in product mix towards high-margin yachts. On the other hand, the company’s borrowings have significantly increased over the last two years while Ferreti also owns its parent EUR211m in debt (not included under debt). We are concerned about the increasing debt position of the company. Ferreti operates in the luxury goods and services market which is not recession proof and thus at the IPO price range, the stock looks overpriced compared to its peers in the luxury goods/service market.Investors are increasingly worrying about another economic downturn as the wealthy have suddenly pulled back their spending on luxury items. Even during the last recession, the order books were healthy and strong at the beginning of the recession, however, there were cancellations and delays which caused a significant decline in the industry’s revenue. The volatile markets and slowdown in global economic growth have caused a decline in luxury spending which puts this IPO at risk of underperformance.We discuss the details below. 

Ferreti Group IPO: Good Business but Sailing in Stormy Economic Seas

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Italian luxury shoemaker Tod's reported 23 quarters of consecutive negative SSSG, has seen its share price fall from 142 EUR to 46 EUR during the last six years and is universally hated by sell-side analysts (16 sell ratings, 4 hold ratings, and 0 buy ratings). During 1H19 sales declined for all its brands, across all regions except China and it recorded its first loss since its IPO nearly 20 years ago. Despite this poor operational performance, the share price is up 11% YTD.Among all the negativity one man strongly believes in the brand. He is the founder and main owner of the company: Diego Della Valle. As first communicated in December 2018 he has continued to increase his stake in the company via insider purchases and has indicated he will continue to do so as long as the share price is depressed. Long-term shareholders in Tod's are awarded higher voting rights which means Della Valle owns 64% of the company shares but has over 81% of the voting rights. An investment in Tod's is, more than ever before, a bet on the Della Valle family.Diego is currently 65 years old and virtually his entire net worth is tied up in Tod's stock. It is possible that Delle Valle is on a self-destruction mission and is misjudging the chances to revive Tod's brand. As shareholders, this is the risk of buying Tod's today. The upside is that Della Valle will look out for himself and 1) either he succeeds in turning around Tod's by 2020 or 2) he realizes the turnaround will not work and he will sell Tod's to the highest bidder. Given the depressed enterprise value of the company (2 billion EUR), there should be ample buyers for the brand. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lvmh-moet-hennessy-louis-vuitton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21072:1" rel="noopener">Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP)</a> remains in pole position to acquire the brand given Bernard Arnault already owns 3.46% of the company.We see virtually no downside (unless financials continue to decline drastically), +50% upside in an earnings recovery story (see my insight from 2017 for details) and 40-70% upside in an M&amp;A scenario.

Italian luxury shoemaker Tod's reported 23 quarters of consecutive negative SSSG, has seen its share price fall from 142 EUR to 46 EUR during the last six years and is universally hated by sell-side analysts (16 sell ratings, 4 hold ratings, and 0 buy ratings). During 1H19 sales declined for all its brands, across all regions except China and it recorded its first loss since its IPO nearly 20 years ago. Despite this poor operational performance, the share price is up 11% YTD.Among all the negativity one man strongly believes in the brand. He is the founder and main owner of the company: Diego Della Valle. As first communicated in December 2018 he has continued to increase his stake in the company via insider purchases and has indicated he will continue to do so as long as the share price is depressed. Long-term shareholders in Tod's are awarded higher voting rights which means Della Valle owns 64% of the company shares but has over 81% of the voting rights. An investment in Tod's is, more than ever before, a bet on the Della Valle family.Diego is currently 65 years old and virtually his entire net worth is tied up in Tod's stock. It is possible that Delle Valle is on a self-destruction mission and is misjudging the chances to revive Tod's brand. As shareholders, this is the risk of buying Tod's today. The upside is that Della Valle will look out for himself and 1) either he succeeds in turning around Tod's by 2020 or 2) he realizes the turnaround will not work and he will sell Tod's to the highest bidder. Given the depressed enterprise value of the company (2 billion EUR), there should be ample buyers for the brand. Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP) remains in pole position to acquire the brand given Bernard Arnault already owns 3.46% of the company.We see virtually no downside (unless financials continue to decline drastically), +50% upside in an earnings recovery story (see my insight from 2017 for details) and 40-70% upside in an M&amp;A scenario.

Tod's: Della Valle Family Ups Insider Buying to 64% Ownership; LVMH Remains Logical Final Stop

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/949/original/Capture%201.PNG?1552520300" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81949"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>
</div>

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be decided. Imminent political developments will determine whether Brexit is hard, soft, deferred, or aborted.
The UK's principal share index the FTSE 100 is virtually unchanged since we established our Long/Short portfolio a month ago. Results from Lloyds and Centrica have lead to useful outperformance and underperformance respectively. The M&amp;S joint venture with Ocado is judged by investors to have added a lot more value to the latter than the former. We have been wrong-footed by Melrose Industries, but heck, there is always one.
Remembering that no one ever got poor from taking  profits,  we have closed out our long position in Lloyds Banking.  


S&amp;P Capital IQ


Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Two to tango in Buenos Aires?</li>
<li>Equities slide; foreigners want in</li>
<li>Records fall yet consumer caution rises</li>
<li>Censors tighten grip amid tech boom</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.
</div>

China News That Matters

Two to tango in Buenos Aires?
Equities slide; foreigners want in
Records fall yet consumer caution rises
Censors tighten grip amid tech boom


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Trade War/China Stocks/ Consumers & Singles’ Day/Tech Worries

United Kingdom

Coats Group plc manufactures industrial thread and consumer textile crafts. The Company offers value added products and services to the apparel and footwear industries, is developing products in new areas such as tracer threads, aramids and fibre optics and is extending its crafts offer into new markets and online.

Mulberry Group plc designs, manufactures and sells leather accessories, readyto-wear men's and women's clothing and an interior design collection.  The products are sold under the Mulberry brand name in the wholesale and retail markets in approximately 32 countries.  The Company sells its products through its own stores. In addition, it has a franchise operation.

Bellway p.l.c. is a holding company whose subsidiaries build residential houses and conduct associated trading activities. The subsidiaries build starter or first time buyer homes, featuring two and three bedroom semi-detached houses, apartments and terraced houses. The Company operates in England, Wales and Scotland.

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc is a holding company and developer of sustainable housing and mixed-use communities.

ME Group International PLC manufactures, sells, and operates automated instant-service equipment. The Company offers coin-operated automatic photobooths, photographic development, and printing equipment, as well as operates copiers, express print services, and children's rides.

Henry Boot PLC is a construction and property development group.  The Group's activities include building and civil engineering, property development and investment, house building and plant hire.  Henry Boot also provides training services to the construction industry.  The Group operates throughout the United Kingdom.

MJ Gleeson plc is a construction operations company. The Company builds houses and housing complexes for housing associations and local authorities, in addition to providing electrical/mechanical engineering contracting, property investment, and residential and commercial development services.

DFS Furniture PLC operates as a retailer of upholstered furniture in the United Kingdom. The Company designs, manufactures, sells, delivers and installs a rang of upholstered and other furniture products.

Focusrite Plc develops, manufactures, and markets professional audio and electronic music products. It operates through Focusrite, Novation, and Distribution segments. The company provides audio interface and other products for audio recording musicians under the Focusrite brand name; and various products that allow its customers to make electronic music using synthesisers and computer-enabled technology under the Novation brand name. It also distributes third party branded products under the KRK speakers, Ableton, Stanton, Cerwin Vega, and Cakewalk brand names. The company primarily serves professional and amateur musicians worldwide. Focusrite Plc sells its products through resellers and distributors. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in High Wycombe, the United Kingdom.

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

Capri Holdings Limited retails apparel. The Company offers fashion luxury women's and men's accessories, footwear, apparel, watches, jewelry, eyewear, and fragrance products, as well as provides delivery services. Capri Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Bata India Limited manufactures a wide range of leather, rubber/canvas and plastic footwear products.  The Company also manufactures sports apparel and leather accessories.  Bata India sells its products through its chain of company owned retail stores in India, as well as to businesses in the USA, United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

Carter's, Inc. markets baby and young children's apparel in the United States. The Company's brands are sold to national department stores, chain and specialty stores, discount retailers, and its own retail stores.

Swan Energy Ltd., through a subsidiary, explores for or procures natural gas and liquefied natural gas for Gujarat.  The Company also develops the gas grid in Gujarat and distributes natural gas.

Relaxo Footwears Ltd. is the marketing company for Relaxo Group.  The Group manufactures Hawai and lightweight chappals.

Fujian Funeng Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of textile including flannelette, cotton yarn, polyurethane synthetic leather, needling fabric, and water-jet bonding fabric.

KPR Mill Limited manufactures apparel products. The Company's products include carded and combed cotton and knitted fabrics.

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes branded performance products for men, women, and youth. The Company designs and sells a broad offering of apparel and accessories made of synthetic microfibers.

Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets athletic, athletic style leisure, and casual and outdoor footwear.

Burberry Group PLC is a global luxury brand with British heritage, core outerwear, and large leather goods base. The Company designs and sources apparel and accessories, selling through a diversified network of retail, digital, wholesale, and licensing channels worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Burberry (BRBY LN)

Sanyo Shokai Signs Joint Venture with Spanish Brand Ecolaf but It Won't Stop the Rot

The major Japanese apparel firms like World Co Ltd (3612 JP), Onward Holdings (8016 JP) and Sanyo Shokai (8011 JP) continue to struggle.The key...

Michael Causton

Ferreti Group IPO: Good Business but Sailing in Stormy Economic Seas

The Italian luxury yacht maker, Ferretti SpA (FER IM) has filed for an initial public offering on the Milan Stock Exchange to raise net proceeds...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tod's: Della Valle Family Ups Insider Buying to 64% Ownership; LVMH Remains Logical Final Stop

Italian luxury shoemaker Tod's reported 23 quarters of consecutive negative SSSG, has seen its share price fall from 142 EUR to 46 EUR during the...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

FTSE 100 Long/Short: Beginner's Luck

With just two weeks left before the UK is set to leave the EU, the shape of the arrangements with country's largest trading partners is still to be...

Boost Research

Trade War/China Stocks/ Consumers & Singles’ Day/Tech Worries

China News That Matters Two to tango in Buenos Aires? Equities slide; foreigners want in Records fall yet consumer caution rises Censors tighten...

Diana Choyleva

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)