Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.</li><li>At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .</li><li>Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.</li></ul>

It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry.At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially bad fiscal 2024, Burberry’s Q1 trading update emphasised a “luxury market that is proving more challenging than expected” with the weakness highlighted coming into FY25 having “deepened” .Retail revenue for the quarter of £458 million came in 22% below the prior year.

BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>Luxury sector experiencing challenges after period of record-high growth</li><li>Key players like LVMH, Hermes, and Richemont facing corrections in share prices</li><li>Burberry facing short thesis due to concerns about navigating changing market dynamics</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Luxury sector experiencing challenges after period of record-high growthKey players like LVMH, Hermes, and Richemont facing corrections in share pricesBurberry facing short thesis due to concerns about navigating changing market dynamicsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea, Prada Korea, Ralph Lauren Korea, and Moncler Korea.</li>
<li>In 2022, Korea spent $16.8 billion in luxury goods, representing per capita consumption of $325 per person, surpassing the United States ($280 per person) and China ($55 per person). </li>
<li>Luxury brand spending in Korea is often a leading indicator of global luxury brand spending. Luxury brand spending in Korea has been weak this year and this continued in 3Q23.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea, Prada Korea, Ralph Lauren Korea, and Moncler Korea.
In 2022, Korea spent $16.8 billion in luxury goods, representing per capita consumption of $325 per person, surpassing the United States ($280 per person) and China ($55 per person). 
Luxury brand spending in Korea is often a leading indicator of global luxury brand spending. Luxury brand spending in Korea has been weak this year and this continued in 3Q23.


Income Statement Analysis of Global Luxury Brand Korea Operations and Luxury Brand Spending Slowdown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

United Kingdom

Coats Group plc manufactures industrial thread and consumer textile crafts. The Company offers value added products and services to the apparel and footwear industries, is developing products in new areas such as tracer threads, aramids and fibre optics and is extending its crafts offer into new markets and online.

Mulberry Group plc designs, manufactures and sells leather accessories, readyto-wear men's and women's clothing and an interior design collection.  The products are sold under the Mulberry brand name in the wholesale and retail markets in approximately 32 countries.  The Company sells its products through its own stores. In addition, it has a franchise operation.

Bellway p.l.c. is a holding company whose subsidiaries build residential houses and conduct associated trading activities. The subsidiaries build starter or first time buyer homes, featuring two and three bedroom semi-detached houses, apartments and terraced houses. The Company operates in England, Wales and Scotland.

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc is a holding company and developer of sustainable housing and mixed-use communities.

ME Group International PLC manufactures, sells, and operates automated instant-service equipment. The Company offers coin-operated automatic photobooths, photographic development, and printing equipment, as well as operates copiers, express print services, and children's rides.

Henry Boot PLC is a construction and property development group.  The Group's activities include building and civil engineering, property development and investment, house building and plant hire.  Henry Boot also provides training services to the construction industry.  The Group operates throughout the United Kingdom.

MJ Gleeson plc is a construction operations company. The Company builds houses and housing complexes for housing associations and local authorities, in addition to providing electrical/mechanical engineering contracting, property investment, and residential and commercial development services.

DFS Furniture PLC operates as a retailer of upholstered furniture in the United Kingdom. The Company designs, manufactures, sells, delivers and installs a rang of upholstered and other furniture products.

Focusrite Plc develops, manufactures, and markets professional audio and electronic music products. It operates through Focusrite, Novation, and Distribution segments. The company provides audio interface and other products for audio recording musicians under the Focusrite brand name; and various products that allow its customers to make electronic music using synthesisers and computer-enabled technology under the Novation brand name. It also distributes third party branded products under the KRK speakers, Ableton, Stanton, Cerwin Vega, and Cakewalk brand names. The company primarily serves professional and amateur musicians worldwide. Focusrite Plc sells its products through resellers and distributors. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in High Wycombe, the United Kingdom.

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

Capri Holdings Limited retails apparel. The Company offers fashion luxury women's and men's accessories, footwear, apparel, watches, jewelry, eyewear, and fragrance products, as well as provides delivery services. Capri Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Bata India Limited manufactures a wide range of leather, rubber/canvas and plastic footwear products.  The Company also manufactures sports apparel and leather accessories.  Bata India sells its products through its chain of company owned retail stores in India, as well as to businesses in the USA, United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

Carter's, Inc. markets baby and young children's apparel in the United States. The Company's brands are sold to national department stores, chain and specialty stores, discount retailers, and its own retail stores.

Swan Energy Ltd., through a subsidiary, explores for or procures natural gas and liquefied natural gas for Gujarat.  The Company also develops the gas grid in Gujarat and distributes natural gas.

Relaxo Footwears Ltd. is the marketing company for Relaxo Group.  The Group manufactures Hawai and lightweight chappals.

Fujian Funeng Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of textile including flannelette, cotton yarn, polyurethane synthetic leather, needling fabric, and water-jet bonding fabric.

KPR Mill Limited manufactures apparel products. The Company's products include carded and combed cotton and knitted fabrics.

Under Armour, Inc. develops, markets, and distributes branded performance products for men, women, and youth. The Company designs and sells a broad offering of apparel and accessories made of synthetic microfibers.

Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets athletic, athletic style leisure, and casual and outdoor footwear.

Burberry Group PLC is a global luxury brand with British heritage, core outerwear, and large leather goods base. The Company designs and sources apparel and accessories, selling through a diversified network of retail, digital, wholesale, and licensing channels worldwide.

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Burberry (BRBY LN)

BRBY: New CEO & Yet More Bad News for the Troubled Retailer

It was hard to imagine a worse first quarter for Burberry. At a time when investors were desperate for some positive news following a torrentially...

Investment Talk

Burberry (BRBY) - Sunday, Mar 31, 2024

Luxury sector experiencing challenges after period of record-high growthKey players like LVMH, Hermes, and Richemont facing corrections in share...

Value Investors Club

Income Statement Analysis of Global Luxury Brand Korea Operations and Luxury Brand Spending Slowdown

In this insight, we provide income statement comparisons of the eight largest global luxury brand Korea operations including Louis Vuitton Korea,...

Douglas Kim

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

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