ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Siloam International Hospitals / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> released its 1H2021 results and was able to sustain its positive momentum for revenue, EBITDA and net profit performance from 1Q2021 to 2Q2021.</p>
<p>The numbers have been driven both by testing and treatment for COVID but also a recovery in case bases as the fear of visiting hospitals subsided during the quarter.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> achieved a net profit margin of 8.0% in 2Q2021 compared with a negative 13.9% in 2Q2020. The company saw YoY EBITDA growth of +487%, booking IDR478bn in 2Q2021 compared with IDR82bn in 2Q2020.</p>
<p>The company conducted a total of 32,000  surgeries in 1H2021, only -10.2% lower than the number of surgeries conducted in pre-COVID 1H2019. Inpatient and outpatient numbers also saw significant improvements in 1H2021</p>
<p> Of the 18 ramping up hospitals which were unprofitable in 2019, nine of these are now profitable, with a total positive EBITDA contribution of IDR150bn in 1H2021. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> continues to strengthen its relationships with corporate and insurance clients, with a corporate loyalty program, as well as consulting services on health issues.</p>
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<p>The company continues to invest in new technology and has seen very strong growth in bookings through its My Siloam app, which saw +321% QoQ growth in 2Q2021 versus 1Q2021.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> is the cheapest of Indonesian hospital stocks trading on 8.7x FY21 EV/EBITDA and it has seen a dramatic turnaround in profitability partly due to COVID-19 related but also the pandemic spurred the company to focus on its loss-making hospitals, which have seen significant improvements. We continue to take a positive view of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a>, given its ongoing progress on improving profitability and attractive valuation versus its peers. </p>
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Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) released its 1H2021 results and was able to sustain its positive momentum for revenue, EBITDA and net profit performance from 1Q2021 to 2Q2021.
The numbers have been driven both by testing and treatment for COVID but also a recovery in case bases as the fear of visiting hospitals subsided during the quarter.
Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) achieved a net profit margin of 8.0% in 2Q2021 compared with a negative 13.9% in 2Q2020. The company saw YoY EBITDA growth of +487%, booking IDR478bn in 2Q2021 compared with IDR82bn in 2Q2020.
The company conducted a total of 32,000  surgeries in 1H2021, only -10.2% lower than the number of surgeries conducted in pre-COVID 1H2019. Inpatient and outpatient numbers also saw significant improvements in 1H2021
 Of the 18 ramping up hospitals which were unprofitable in 2019, nine of these are now profitable, with a total positive EBITDA contribution of IDR150bn in 1H2021. 

Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) continues to strengthen its relationships with corporate and insurance clients, with a corporate loyalty program, as well as consulting services on health issues.


The company continues to invest in new technology and has seen very strong growth in bookings through its My Siloam app, which saw +321% QoQ growth in 2Q2021 versus 1Q2021.


Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) is the cheapest of Indonesian hospital stocks trading on 8.7x FY21 EV/EBITDA and it has seen a dramatic turnaround in profitability partly due to COVID-19 related but also the pandemic spurred the company to focus on its loss-making hospitals, which have seen significant improvements. We continue to take a positive view of Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ), given its ongoing progress on improving profitability and attractive valuation versus its peers. 












Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) - Base Cases Improvement

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Thailand plans to fully reopen to foreign visitors in 120 days, given it aims to give at least one dose of vaccine to the majority of residents by early October.</p>
<p>The country aims for some tourist destinations to be open to fully vaccinated visitors without any quarantine requirement before this time. Phuket is seen as the “pilot” for the new scheme.</p>
<p>Thailand's economy is highly dependent on tourism with around 12% of GDP officially from tourism but the true exposure is closer to 20% given all the related industries outside travel and hotels from retail to banks. </p>
<p>These most recent plans were unveiled in an address by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha in a National address yesterday, which included a number of important concessions, which can be seen in the detailed section.</p>
<p>We recommend increasing weightings in Thai hotels, hospitals, selective retailers, and banks to play this tourism recovery theme. Please see below for details. </p>

Thailand plans to fully reopen to foreign visitors in 120 days, given it aims to give at least one dose of vaccine to the majority of residents by early October.
The country aims for some tourist destinations to be open to fully vaccinated visitors without any quarantine requirement before this time. Phuket is seen as the “pilot” for the new scheme.
Thailand's economy is highly dependent on tourism with around 12% of GDP officially from tourism but the true exposure is closer to 20% given all the related industries outside travel and hotels from retail to banks. 
These most recent plans were unveiled in an address by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha in a National address yesterday, which included a number of important concessions, which can be seen in the detailed section.
We recommend increasing weightings in Thai hotels, hospitals, selective retailers, and banks to play this tourism recovery theme. Please see below for details. 

Thailand - 120 Days Later - Fully Vaccinated Tourism to Resume

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p>On 6 May 2021, Bloomberg reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder with a 32.90% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a>. Mitsui is aiming to partner with private equity firms and has reached out to Khazanah Nasional Berhad, the second-largest shareholder with a 26.02% stake, to acquire its stake, according to Bloomberg. Mitsui and IHH have not formally commented on the report. On the back of the report, the shares have risen 8.8% from the unaffected price of RM5.20 (5 May) to the last close price of RM5.66. </p><p>IHH is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia and the Singapore Stock Exchange. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. Mitsui sits just below the threshold and the acquisition of further shares from Khazanah Nasional Berhad would trigger an MGO. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We think that report has some credibility due to Mitsui’s view that IHH is a core asset to fulfil its ambition of expanding in the largest healthcare ecosystem in Asia. Also, Mitsui has a previous working relationship with Khazanah Nasional Berhad and announced the acquisition of a 16% stake in IHH from Khazanah Nasional Berhad in November 2018. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal). </p></div>

On 6 May 2021, Bloomberg reported that Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP), the largest shareholder with a 32.90% stake, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise IHH Healthcare (IHH MK). Mitsui is aiming to partner with private equity firms and has reached out to Khazanah Nasional Berhad, the second-largest shareholder with a 26.02% stake, to acquire its stake, according to Bloomberg. Mitsui and IHH have not formally commented on the report. On the back of the report, the shares have risen 8.8% from the unaffected price of RM5.20 (5 May) to the last close price of RM5.66. IHH is listed on the Main Markets of Bursa Malaysia and the Singapore Stock Exchange. In Malaysia, the threshold for triggering a mandatory general offer (MGO) is the offeror and concert parties owning 33% or more of the voting shares. Mitsui sits just below the threshold and the acquisition of further shares from Khazanah Nasional Berhad would trigger an MGO. We think that report has some credibility due to Mitsui’s view that IHH is a core asset to fulfil its ambition of expanding in the largest healthcare ecosystem in Asia. Also, Mitsui has a previous working relationship with Khazanah Nasional Berhad and announced the acquisition of a 16% stake in IHH from Khazanah Nasional Berhad in November 2018. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low (trading close to break price) with a good probability of upside (announcement of a formal proposal). 

IHH Healthcare’s Possible Privatisation by Mitsui

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>On the <a href="https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement?keyword=&amp;cat=&amp;sub_type=&amp;company=5225&amp;mkt=&amp;alph=&amp;sec=&amp;subsec=&amp;dt_ht=02%2F10%2F2018&amp;dt_lt=29%2F12%2F2018%23%2F&amp;page=2#/?category=all" target="_blank" rel="noopener">29 November</a> 2018, Khazanah Nasional sold a 16%, US$2.01bn stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>, elevating Mitsui's long-time mid-teens stake to 32.9% - allowing Mitsui to become IHH's largest shareholder - with Khazanah's holding declining to 26%. Mitsui's stake is a shade below Malaysia's 33% mandatory takeover threshold. </p>
<p>Reportedly Mitsui is now exploring a deal to take IHH private, and has been sounded out by private equity outfits as to a potential transaction. According to media reports, Khazanah has been approached to sell its stake. </p>
<p>Shares closed up 7.88% yesterday on the rumours.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>

On the 29 November 2018, Khazanah Nasional sold a 16%, US$2.01bn stake in IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) to Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP), elevating Mitsui's long-time mid-teens stake to 32.9% - allowing Mitsui to become IHH's largest shareholder - with Khazanah's holding declining to 26%. Mitsui's stake is a shade below Malaysia's 33% mandatory takeover threshold. 
Reportedly Mitsui is now exploring a deal to take IHH private, and has been sounded out by private equity outfits as to a potential transaction. According to media reports, Khazanah has been approached to sell its stake. 
Shares closed up 7.88% yesterday on the rumours.
More below the fold. 

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> announced a robust set of results for 1Q2021 late last week, with revenue growth of +37.6% YoY, mainly driven by COVID-19 cases, which command a higher treatment intensity.</p>
<p>Volume for Non-COVID-19 inpatient days also increased, up +5.6% QoQ compared to 4Q 2020, with occupancy improving to 61% for non-COVID beds. The improvement in non-COVID-19 patients bodes well for this year's outlook. </p>
<p>Mitra Keluarga continues to add more hospitals, through both greenfield and brownfield expansion plans and has opened one new hospital already this year. It will commence the groundbreaking for its 27th &amp; 28th hospitals in 1H2021. M&amp;A opportunities also remain a potential growth driver with two other hospitals currently in the pipeline. </p>
<p>Patient numbers declined in 1Q2021 YoY but revenues per outpatient and inpatient days increased significantly due to a significantly higher number of COVID-19 patients being treated. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> bed Occupancy Ratio reached 63.4% for 1Q2021, compared to 65.7% in 1Q2020, mainly boosts by high COVID-19 bed occupancies, although non-COVID bed occupancies were not far off last year.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-keluarga-karyasehat-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:288:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)</a> trades on 23.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 24.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 29.5x making the company look relatively attractive. It is likely to see a gradual tapering off in terms of revenues from COVID-19 treatments as the vaccination program starts to gain traction but it will still be an important source of revenue in the medium term, together with the fact that it is already seeing a pick-up in its normal elective treatments.</p>
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Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) announced a robust set of results for 1Q2021 late last week, with revenue growth of +37.6% YoY, mainly driven by COVID-19 cases, which command a higher treatment intensity.
Volume for Non-COVID-19 inpatient days also increased, up +5.6% QoQ compared to 4Q 2020, with occupancy improving to 61% for non-COVID beds. The improvement in non-COVID-19 patients bodes well for this year's outlook. 
Mitra Keluarga continues to add more hospitals, through both greenfield and brownfield expansion plans and has opened one new hospital already this year. It will commence the groundbreaking for its 27th &amp; 28th hospitals in 1H2021. M&amp;A opportunities also remain a potential growth driver with two other hospitals currently in the pipeline. 
Patient numbers declined in 1Q2021 YoY but revenues per outpatient and inpatient days increased significantly due to a significantly higher number of COVID-19 patients being treated. 
Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) bed Occupancy Ratio reached 63.4% for 1Q2021, compared to 65.7% in 1Q2020, mainly boosts by high COVID-19 bed occupancies, although non-COVID bed occupancies were not far off last year.

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ) trades on 23.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 24.2x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average of 29.5x making the company look relatively attractive. It is likely to see a gradual tapering off in terms of revenues from COVID-19 treatments as the vaccination program starts to gain traction but it will still be an important source of revenue in the medium term, together with the fact that it is already seeing a pick-up in its normal elective treatments.


Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Occupancy and Profitability Rising

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

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Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) - Base Cases Improvement

We are positive about Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ), given its ongoing progress on improving profitability, the recovery in its base...

Angus Mackintosh

Thailand - 120 Days Later - Fully Vaccinated Tourism to Resume

Thailand plans reopen to reopen its borders to the fully vaccinated in 120 days without quarantine restrictions, which will be a boon for the...

Angus Mackintosh

IHH Healthcare’s Possible Privatisation by Mitsui

Mitsui, the largest shareholder, is currently exploring a proposal to privatise IHH. Overall, at the last close price, the downside risk is low...

Arun George

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?

If Khazanah is onboard with a privatisation, expect the other government-link shareholders to follow suit, which together with Aydınlar's 5.9%...

David Blennerhassett

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ) - Occupancy and Profitability Rising

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ) is probably the best quality listed hospital player in Indonesia, with good governance and throwing off the highest...

Angus Mackintosh

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