Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported marginal revenue growth in 2024, with margins expanding on lower expenses. Revenue from international patients witnesses contraction, while domestic patient volumes provide traction.</li>
<li>Competition from peers like BDMS remains a concern in near term. With the entire Ramadan period falling in 1Q25, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue is expected to remain muted in 1Q25.</li>
<li>The share prices of Bumrungrad are expected to remain under pressure with the commencement of operation at BIH Phuket being the only near-term trigger for the company.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported marginal revenue growth in 2024, with margins expanding on lower expenses. Revenue from international patients witnesses contraction, while domestic patient volumes provide traction.
Competition from peers like BDMS remains a concern in near term. With the entire Ramadan period falling in 1Q25, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue is expected to remain muted in 1Q25.
The share prices of Bumrungrad are expected to remain under pressure with the commencement of operation at BIH Phuket being the only near-term trigger for the company.


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).</li><li>We still hold a positive view on the fundamentals, as the market price implies upside of 29% to the fair value.</li><li>We maintain a negative view on the long-term growth, which is weaker than the industry, with 2024-26E core EPS CAGR expected at +1%. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).We still hold a positive view on the fundamentals, as the market price implies upside of 29% to the fair value.We maintain a negative view on the long-term growth, which is weaker than the industry, with 2024-26E core EPS CAGR expected at +1%. 

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

<ul><li>4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.</li><li>This is ascribed to a slowdown in Kuwait patient referrals, the redistribution of UAE patients, and the full recognition of the 30-day Ramadan period in 1Q25E (compared to 20 days in 1Q24).</li><li>Moreover, intense competition remains a challenge, leading to a long-term EPS CAGR of merely +2% for 2024- 26E, which is lower than the industry average of +7%.</li></ul>

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.This is ascribed to a slowdown in Kuwait patient referrals, the redistribution of UAE patients, and the full recognition of the 30-day Ramadan period in 1Q25E (compared to 20 days in 1Q24).Moreover, intense competition remains a challenge, leading to a long-term EPS CAGR of merely +2% for 2024- 26E, which is lower than the industry average of +7%.

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning.</li><li>The stock price has declined by 15% since the 3Q24 earnings announcement.</li><li>Hence, the upside relative to the new target price of Bt236.00 with a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt242.00 with a required return of 3.9%) has increased to +5%. This shifts the fundamental recommendation to neutral (previously overvalued).</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning.The stock price has declined by 15% since the 3Q24 earnings announcement.Hence, the upside relative to the new target price of Bt236.00 with a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt242.00 with a required return of 3.9%) has increased to +5%. This shifts the fundamental recommendation to neutral (previously overvalued).

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported 5% YoY revenue decline in 3Q24, due to negative geo-political impact (international patient revenue decline) and lower revenue intensity (lesser contribution from inpatient).</li>
<li>In 3Q24, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue declined 7% YoY. Revenue decline was mainly due to downturns in Kuwait (-67% YoY), UAE (-37%), Cambodia (-15%), and Myanmar (-4%).</li>
<li>We are anticipating a sequentially weak 4Q24. Since reporting 3Q24 result, Bumrungrad shares have corrected ~20%. We are not seeing any immediate recovery.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported 5% YoY revenue decline in 3Q24, due to negative geo-political impact (international patient revenue decline) and lower revenue intensity (lesser contribution from inpatient).
In 3Q24, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue declined 7% YoY. Revenue decline was mainly due to downturns in Kuwait (-67% YoY), UAE (-37%), Cambodia (-15%), and Myanmar (-4%).
We are anticipating a sequentially weak 4Q24. Since reporting 3Q24 result, Bumrungrad shares have corrected ~20%. We are not seeing any immediate recovery.


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning. The stock price has declined by...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

​Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Upbeat 4Q24 Earnings Due to Lower Tax Expenses...

We maintain a Neutral rating but lower the fair value to Bt237.00, based on a required return of 4.1% (previously Bt246.00 and 3.9%).

Krungthai XSpring

BH TB- Expect Weak 4Q24E, with Continued Pressure in 1Q25E Due to Extended Ramadan Period

4Q24E core profit is expected to have declined QoQ, with a continued decrease in 1Q25E both YoY and QoQ due to a reduction in Middle Eastern patients.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning. The stock price has declined by...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

​Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital sees marginal revenue growth in 2024, with international patient revenue declining. Share prices are expected to remain under...

Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...