Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning.</li><li>The stock price has declined by 15% since the 3Q24 earnings announcement.</li><li>Hence, the upside relative to the new target price of Bt236.00 with a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt242.00 with a required return of 3.9%) has increased to +5%. This shifts the fundamental recommendation to neutral (previously overvalued).</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning.The stock price has declined by 15% since the 3Q24 earnings announcement.Hence, the upside relative to the new target price of Bt236.00 with a required return of 4.0% (previously Bt242.00 with a required return of 3.9%) has increased to +5%. This shifts the fundamental recommendation to neutral (previously overvalued).

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a> reported 5% YoY revenue decline in 3Q24, due to negative geo-political impact (international patient revenue decline) and lower revenue intensity (lesser contribution from inpatient).</li>
<li>In 3Q24, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue declined 7% YoY. Revenue decline was mainly due to downturns in Kuwait (-67% YoY), UAE (-37%), Cambodia (-15%), and Myanmar (-4%).</li>
<li>We are anticipating a sequentially weak 4Q24. Since reporting 3Q24 result, Bumrungrad shares have corrected ~20%. We are not seeing any immediate recovery.</li>
</ul>



Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported 5% YoY revenue decline in 3Q24, due to negative geo-political impact (international patient revenue decline) and lower revenue intensity (lesser contribution from inpatient).
In 3Q24, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue declined 7% YoY. Revenue decline was mainly due to downturns in Kuwait (-67% YoY), UAE (-37%), Cambodia (-15%), and Myanmar (-4%).
We are anticipating a sequentially weak 4Q24. Since reporting 3Q24 result, Bumrungrad shares have corrected ~20%. We are not seeing any immediate recovery.


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) with a more positive outlook on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.</li><li>The stock price has declined by 4% since our previous report, reducing the downside to -8% relative to the previous fair value (FV) of Bt242 (based on a required return of 3.9%).</li><li>The fundamental recommendation has therefore been upgraded to overvalued (previously sell).</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) with a more positive outlook on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.The stock price has declined by 4% since our previous report, reducing the downside to -8% relative to the previous fair value (FV) of Bt242 (based on a required return of 3.9%).The fundamental recommendation has therefore been upgraded to overvalued (previously sell).

Bumrungrad Hospital - Downbeat 3Q24 Earnings; 4Q24E to Fall Further QoQ

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on BH with an Underperform rating.</li><li>Negative valuation metrics indicate a bearish outlook, suggesting potential downside of -12% to the current fair price, along with slow long-term growth prospects and very limited tactical upside in the short term.</li><li>KTX has assessed a fair value of Bt242.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 3.9%, which equates to a P/E ratio of 26x.</li></ul>

We initiate coverage on BH with an Underperform rating.Negative valuation metrics indicate a bearish outlook, suggesting potential downside of -12% to the current fair price, along with slow long-term growth prospects and very limited tactical upside in the short term.KTX has assessed a fair value of Bt242.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 3.9%, which equates to a P/E ratio of 26x.

Bumrungrad Hospital - Low 3-Year Earnings Growth

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

Thailand

Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries,  owns and operates the Bumrungrad Hospital. Located in Bangkok, the Hospital has capacity of international standard medical care with 554 beds for inpatients and approximately 125 clinic examination suites that can serve up to 3,000 outpatients daily.

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Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning. The stock price has declined by...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Downbeat 3Q24 Earnings; 4Q24E to Fall Further QoQ

We upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) with a more positive outlook on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Low 3-Year Earnings Growth

KTX has assessed a fair value of Bt242.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 3.9%, which equates to a P/E ratio of 26x.

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bumrungrad Hospital - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Slower Foreign Patients

We maintain a Neutral rating with a more positive outlook on both the fundamentals and the tactical positioning. The stock price has declined by...

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Lower Revenue From International Patients Weighed on 3Q24 Result

​Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...

Tina Banerjee

Bumrungrad Hospital - Downbeat 3Q24 Earnings; 4Q24E to Fall Further QoQ

We upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) with a more positive outlook on both the fundamental and tactical aspects.

Krungthai XSpring

Bumrungrad Hospital - Low 3-Year Earnings Growth

KTX has assessed a fair value of Bt242.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 3.9%, which equates to a P/E ratio of 26x.

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bumrungrad reported 5% YoY sales decline in 3Q24, mainly due to negative geo-political impact on international patient revenue, which declined 7%...