Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>


Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment 
There is a sense of aggression in ITC Ltd (ITC IN), Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is well placed to grow volumes &amp; Nestle India (NEST IN) is expected to be a steady performer. 

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)' s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)'s products are more prone to volatility. 


India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><ul><li>Result beats expectations; but near-term outlook challenging</li><li>Sales in line; margins ahead of estimates BRIT’s consolidated sales rose 13.4% YoY to INR 35.5b (inline )in 4QFY22.</li></ul><div><ul><li>Highlights from the management commentary -f<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">orward commitments had helped protect margins in 4QFY22.</span></li></ul></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Result beats expectations; but near-term outlook challengingSales in line; margins ahead of estimates BRIT’s consolidated sales rose 13.4% YoY to INR 35.5b (inline )in 4QFY22.Highlights from the management commentary -forward commitments had helped protect margins in 4QFY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

4QFY22 Results Update  - Britannia Industries

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>BRIT’s top line improved by 15.5% YoY in Q4FY22 but remained flattish QoQ. The company reported revenues of Rs 3,508 Cr, up 15.5% YoY, driven by mid-single digit volume growth of 4% on account of share gains from unorganized players</li><li>Gross Margin (GPM) of 37.3% in Q4FY22 was lower than 136bps YoY owing to a sharp QoQ and YoY rise in prices of RMs like palm oil and crude that impacted prices of packing material and transport costs</li><li>Retain HOLD with revised TP of Rs 3,650 (earlier Rs 3,700), valuing BRIT at 43x PE its FY24E EPS.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BRIT’s top line improved by 15.5% YoY in Q4FY22 but remained flattish QoQ. The company reported revenues of Rs 3,508 Cr, up 15.5% YoY, driven by mid-single digit volume growth of 4% on account of share gains from unorganized playersGross Margin (GPM) of 37.3% in Q4FY22 was lower than 136bps YoY owing to a sharp QoQ and YoY rise in prices of RMs like palm oil and crude that impacted prices of packing material and transport costsRetain HOLD with revised TP of Rs 3,650 (earlier Rs 3,700), valuing BRIT at 43x PE its FY24E EPS.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries: Volume Growth Encouraging; Maintaining Near-Term Profitability A Challenge

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)</li><li>Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urban</li><li>Volume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessed</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22 (vs 24/22% in Q4FY21 and 16/12% in Q3FY22)Inflationary pressure continued to disrupt demand in both urban and rural India; however, rural volume growth was weaker than urbanVolume growth has been decelerating even on 2/3 year CAGR (demand pressure, grammage reduction); however, downtrading was not witnessedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN)</a> is a leading FMCG food company in India. It is set to launch an IPO to raise Rs36,000 million ($483 million) at a price of Rs218-230.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/adani-wilmar-ipo-initiation-cooking-up-a-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:64105" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar IPO Initiation: Cooking up a Business</a>, we noted that the business is navigating the high commodity prices by delivering high growth and creditable margin performance.  </li>
<li>In this note, we present our valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. The offer period is from 27 to 31 January.</li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) is a leading FMCG food company in India. It is set to launch an IPO to raise Rs36,000 million ($483 million) at a price of Rs218-230.
In Adani Wilmar IPO Initiation: Cooking up a Business, we noted that the business is navigating the high commodity prices by delivering high growth and creditable margin performance.  
In this note, we present our valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. The offer period is from 27 to 31 January.


India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

This channel insight shares key takeaways from speaking to channels across north India that are associated with ITC, Britannia, Nestle India,...

Pranav Bhavsar

4QFY22 Results Update - Britannia Industries

Result beats expectations; but near-term outlook challenging, BRIT’s 4QFY22 result was ahead of our forecasts led by higher-than-expected volume...

Motilal Oswal

Britannia Industries: Volume Growth Encouraging; Maintaining Near-Term Profitability A Challenge

We tweak our FY22-24E to factor in the impact of RM headinds Retain HOLD with revised TP of Rs 3,650 (earlier Rs 3,700) valuing BRIT at 43x PE its...

Axis Direct

FMCG & Alco Bev: Rural Demand Struggles; Margin Pressures Continue

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 8/9%: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/9% YoY in revenue/EBITDA in Q4FY22...

HDFC Securities

Adani Wilmar IPO: Valuation Insights

Adani Wilmar is set to launch an IPO to raise $483m at a price of Rs218-230. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.

Arun George

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