Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BRIT’s Q2FY23 results were ahead of ours and consensus estimates.</li><li>The company reported consolidated revenue of Rs 4,338 Cr, up 22% YoY (3-year CAGR of 13%), primarily led by a cumulative price growth of ~18% and volume growth of 5%.</li><li>The management states that the company’s market share gains driven by its strong distribution expansion in direct channels coupled with rural distribution contributed to the growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIT’s Q2FY23 results were ahead of ours and consensus estimates.The company reported consolidated revenue of Rs 4,338 Cr, up 22% YoY (3-year CAGR of 13%), primarily led by a cumulative price growth of ~18% and volume growth of 5%.The management states that the company’s market share gains driven by its strong distribution expansion in direct channels coupled with rural distribution contributed to the growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries - Strong Set Of Numbers; Beat On Estimates – Upgrade to BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY base</li><li>In H1FY23, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR31.3bn/INR32.2bn vs INR132.8bn/INR37.0bn YoY</li><li>Q2FY23 revenue increased 7.3% YoY, led by moderate growth in the transmission (+7.4% YoY) and telecom (+7.3% YoY) segments, partially offset by a 25.9% YoY decline in consultancy income</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY baseIn H1FY23, capitalisation/Capex came in at INR31.3bn/INR32.2bn vs INR132.8bn/INR37.0bn YoYQ2FY23 revenue increased 7.3% YoY, led by moderate growth in the transmission (+7.4% YoY) and telecom (+7.3% YoY) segments, partially offset by a 25.9% YoY decline in consultancy incomeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Britannia Industries, Cummins, Aditya Birla Capital

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a> , an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we'll talk about implied valuations.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN) , an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO.
Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.
In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we'll talk about implied valuations.


Bikaji Foods International IPO - At an Equally Spicy Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a>, an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company's past performance.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO.
Its product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs, frozen food, mathri range and cookies.
In this note, we look at the company's past performance.


Bikaji Foods International IPO - Spicy Snacks

India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Britannia Industries - Strong Set Of Numbers; Beat On Estimates – Upgrade to BUY

he company reported consolidated revenue of Rs 4,338 Cr, up 22% YoY (3-year CAGR of 13%), primarily led by a cumulative price growth of ~18% and...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Britannia Industries, Cummins, Aditya Birla Capital

PGCIL: PGCIL’s consolidated asset capitalisation/Capex in Q2FY23 declined 76.6%/32.8% YoY to INR17.9bn/INR17.4bn, on a high YoY base

HDFC Securities

Bikaji Foods International IPO - At an Equally Spicy Valuation

Bikaji Foods, an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Bikaji Foods International IPO - Spicy Snacks

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, is looking to raise approximately US$107m in its India IPO. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

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