Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> recently announced the strategic acquisition of Century Pulp and Paper (CPP) from AB Real Estate (ABREL) for INR 3,500 crore on a slump sale basis.  </li>
<li>This Business Transfer Agreement (BTA) occurs amid an industry downturn marked by surging input costs, subdued demand, and competition from low-priced imports.</li>
<li>This acquisition significantly expands ITC's paper segment capacity by 60%, targeting a 30-40% EBITDA per tonne improvement.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) recently announced the strategic acquisition of Century Pulp and Paper (CPP) from AB Real Estate (ABREL) for INR 3,500 crore on a slump sale basis.  
This Business Transfer Agreement (BTA) occurs amid an industry downturn marked by surging input costs, subdued demand, and competition from low-priced imports.
This acquisition significantly expands ITC's paper segment capacity by 60%, targeting a 30-40% EBITDA per tonne improvement.


Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group's Paper Business

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ITC’s 3QFY25 results were below our estimates in all categories except agribusiness</li><li>Cigarette volume growth of 5%+ exceeded our estimate of 3%, driven by: a) strong performance in differentiated variants and premium segments, b) sustained volume recovery from the illicit segment, and c) in our view, channel filling ahead of the Union Budget</li><li>Cigarette EBIT margin contracted by 211bps YoY to 60.5% due to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices (up 25-30% YoY), higher trade incentives, and increased competitive intensity.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ITC’s 3QFY25 results were below our estimates in all categories except agribusinessCigarette volume growth of 5%+ exceeded our estimate of 3%, driven by: a) strong performance in differentiated variants and premium segments, b) sustained volume recovery from the illicit segment, and c) in our view, channel filling ahead of the Union BudgetCigarette EBIT margin contracted by 211bps YoY to 60.5% due to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices (up 25-30% YoY), higher trade incentives, and increased competitive intensity.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC (3QFY25): Core Disappoints once Again, Agri Surprises. Maintain REDUCE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> Hotels demerger aims to unlock the intrinsic value of the hotels business and enable a sharper focus on growth.</li>
<li>ITC Hotels is aiming to reach a portfolio of 200+ hotels with 18,000+ keys by 2030 from a robust pipeline of 140 Hotels with about 13000 Keys in 2024.</li>
<li>ITC Hotels inheriting a strong balance sheet with zero debt and cash reserves may list around 113-170 per share.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) Hotels demerger aims to unlock the intrinsic value of the hotels business and enable a sharper focus on growth.
ITC Hotels is aiming to reach a portfolio of 200+ hotels with 18,000+ keys by 2030 from a robust pipeline of 140 Hotels with about 13000 Keys in 2024.
ITC Hotels inheriting a strong balance sheet with zero debt and cash reserves may list around 113-170 per share.


ITC Hotels Demerger: An Emerging Behemoth & Hospitality Play

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels - 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.</li>
</ul>



ITC Ltd (ITC IN) will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.

ITC Ltd (ITC IN) shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels - 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).
There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.


ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt26.75, based on a required return of 5.07%.</li><li>Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12% CAGR.</li><li>The peak of profit margins and seasonal factors may limit the share price performance. </li></ul>

KTX maintains an Outperform rating with a 2025E fair value (FV) of Bt26.75, based on a required return of 5.07%.Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12% CAGR.The peak of profit margins and seasonal factors may limit the share price performance. 

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

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ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group's Paper Business

ITC Ltd acquires Century Pulp and Paper for INR 3,500 crore amid industry downturn, aiming to boost paper segment capacity by 60% and improve...

Nimish Maheshwari

ITC (3QFY25): Core Disappoints once Again, Agri Surprises. Maintain REDUCE

Cigarette EBIT margin contracted by 211bps YoY to 60.5% due to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices (up 25-30% YoY), higher trade incentives, and...

HDFC Securities

ITC Hotels Demerger: An Emerging Behemoth & Hospitality Play

ITC Hotels Limited(ITCHL) has informed us today that ITCHL has received approval from the NSE and BSE for listing and trading of its equity shares...

Nimish Maheshwari

ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC Hotels demerges from ITC on 6 Jan. There will be an SPOS on 6 Jan to determine ITC's price post demerger. There will be a LOT of selling in ITC...

Brian Freitas

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12%...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group's Paper Business

​ITC Ltd acquires Century Pulp and Paper for INR 3,500 crore amid industry downturn, aiming to boost paper segment capacity by 60% and improve...

Nimish Maheshwari

ITC (3QFY25): Core Disappoints once Again, Agri Surprises. Maintain REDUCE

Cigarette EBIT margin contracted by 211bps YoY to 60.5% due to a sharp escalation in tobacco prices (up 25-30% YoY), higher trade incentives, and...

HDFC Securities

ITC Hotels Demerger: An Emerging Behemoth & Hospitality Play

ITC Hotels Limited(ITCHL) has informed us today that ITCHL has received approval from the NSE and BSE for listing and trading of its equity shares...

Nimish Maheshwari

ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

ITC Hotels demerges from ITC on 6 Jan. There will be an SPOS on 6 Jan to determine ITC's price post demerger. There will be a LOT of selling in ITC...

Brian Freitas

I-Tail Corporation - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

Our valuation metrics indicate that the stock implies an attractive upside potential while the growth prospects for 2024-26E remain strong at a 12%...

Krungthai XSpring

ITC Ltd acquires Century Pulp and Paper for INR 3,500 crore amid industry downturn, aiming to boost paper segment capacity by 60% and improve...