Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bilibili announced a follow-on equity offering of 15.34m ADS priced at $26.65 per ADS partially in exchange for convertible senior notes due 2026 (US$384.8m) and to replenish its cash reserves.</li>
<li>Each ADS represents one ordinary share and new equity offering of 15.34m shares will account for approx. 3.7% of the company’s extended share capital post follow-on offering.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> ADS dropped 5.76% following the announcement of the follow-on offering and we believe there is limited upside.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili announced a follow-on equity offering of 15.34m ADS priced at $26.65 per ADS partially in exchange for convertible senior notes due 2026 (US$384.8m) and to replenish its cash reserves.
Each ADS represents one ordinary share and new equity offering of 15.34m shares will account for approx. 3.7% of the company’s extended share capital post follow-on offering.

Bilibili Inc (BILI US) ADS dropped 5.76% following the announcement of the follow-on offering and we believe there is limited upside.


Bilibili Follow-On Offering: Limited Upside

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>  aims to raise around US$400m via a follow-on ADS offering.</li>
<li>The company plans to use most of the proceeds to redeem its 2026 notes.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  aims to raise around US$400m via a follow-on ADS offering.
The company plans to use most of the proceeds to redeem its 2026 notes.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.


Bilibili Follow-On Offering - Seems Opportunistic

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.</li>
<li>We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.</li>
<li>With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.</li>
</ul>


Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.


China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.</li>
<li>On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
On the IPO front,  things are started to cool down in to the year end with some smaller issuers still trying their luck to get listed before the year end.
On placements front, most of the action was in India with Australia seeing a large offering after a while.


ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili Follow-On Offering: Limited Upside

Bilibili announced a follow-on ADS offering of 15.34m shares to raise about US$408m. The offer is priced at US$26.65 per ADS, 7.6% discount to the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili Follow-On Offering - Seems Opportunistic

Bilibili Inc (BILI US) aims to raise around US$400m via a follow-on ADS offering. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sumeet Singh

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

200% surge in share price baked in much of positive outlook we envisage on IQIYI, which now trades at 35x our estimated earnings for 2023. We...

Eric Chen

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (18th Dec 2022) - China ADRs, Skymark, Daiei, Weilong, KFintech, Sula, Endeavour, Adani

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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