China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line, while non-GAAP net loss beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely dial down 2023 revenue forecast. </li>
<li>Moreover, we also suggest that recent meeting by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) to curb short video addiction for minor protection would heavily impact BILI.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 15.4, which implies 1.85X PS in 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line, while non-GAAP net loss beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely dial down 2023 revenue forecast. 
Moreover, we also suggest that recent meeting by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) to curb short video addiction for minor protection would heavily impact BILI.
Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 15.4, which implies 1.85X PS in 2023.


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US) Target Price Change]: Minor Protection Would Be a Pending Issue

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported 4Q2022 results. Net revenue increased 6.2% YoY to RMB6,142m (vs consensus RMB6,154m) while operating losses expanded to RMB2,327M (vs consensus RMB1,905.9m).</li>
<li>Mobile Games revenues declined 11.5% YoY in 4Q2022 due to the restructuring of the games biz to focus on self-developed gaming titles.</li>
<li>We expect Bilibili’s earnings to remain under pressure with aggressive cost controls to impact growth and Mobile games to slow-down in 2023E with lack of new titles for launch.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported 4Q2022 results. Net revenue increased 6.2% YoY to RMB6,142m (vs consensus RMB6,154m) while operating losses expanded to RMB2,327M (vs consensus RMB1,905.9m).
Mobile Games revenues declined 11.5% YoY in 4Q2022 due to the restructuring of the games biz to focus on self-developed gaming titles.
We expect Bilibili’s earnings to remain under pressure with aggressive cost controls to impact growth and Mobile games to slow-down in 2023E with lack of new titles for launch.


Bilibili 4Q: Gaming to Drop Further with In-House Developed Strategy

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023</li>
<li>The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.</li>
<li>Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.</li>
</ul>


BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023
The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.
Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.


Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.</li>
<li>We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.</li>
<li>We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.</li>
</ul>


We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.


China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

<ul>
<li>While BILI's top line in 4Q22/2023 would be in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to cost-savings and optimized monetization efficiency. </li>
<li>BILI’s adjusted net loss would be significantly narrowed to (3.2)bn RMB in 2023, per our estimation. However, we still have concerns about some of BILI’s fundamentals.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL but raise TP to US$ 16.4, implying 1.8X PS in 2023.</li>
</ul>


While BILI's top line in 4Q22/2023 would be in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to cost-savings and optimized monetization efficiency. 
BILI’s adjusted net loss would be significantly narrowed to (3.2)bn RMB in 2023, per our estimation. However, we still have concerns about some of BILI’s fundamentals.
Maintain SELL but raise TP to US$ 16.4, implying 1.8X PS in 2023.


Bilibili(Bili.US) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for More Optimistic Outlook in 2023

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US) Target Price Change]: Minor Protection Would Be a Pending Issue

BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line with our est., while non-GAAP net loss was in line with our est., and beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili 4Q: Gaming to Drop Further with In-House Developed Strategy

Bilibili's 4Q earnings were disappointing with mobile games declining. Terminating underperforming gaming titles alone is not sufficient as the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

Disappointing 4Q results highlights the outlook of low growth and limited room for margin improvement. We see further downside risks ahead.

Eric Chen

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili(Bili.US) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for More Optimistic Outlook in 2023

While we forecast that BILI's top line would be basically in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)