Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023</li>
<li>The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.</li>
<li>Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.</li>
</ul>


BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023
The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.
Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.


Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.</li>
<li>We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.</li>
<li>We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.</li>
</ul>


We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.


China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

<ul>
<li>While BILI's top line in 4Q22/2023 would be in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to cost-savings and optimized monetization efficiency. </li>
<li>BILI’s adjusted net loss would be significantly narrowed to (3.2)bn RMB in 2023, per our estimation. However, we still have concerns about some of BILI’s fundamentals.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL but raise TP to US$ 16.4, implying 1.8X PS in 2023.</li>
</ul>


While BILI's top line in 4Q22/2023 would be in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to cost-savings and optimized monetization efficiency. 
BILI’s adjusted net loss would be significantly narrowed to (3.2)bn RMB in 2023, per our estimation. However, we still have concerns about some of BILI’s fundamentals.
Maintain SELL but raise TP to US$ 16.4, implying 1.8X PS in 2023.


Bilibili(Bili.US) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for More Optimistic Outlook in 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> placements, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - China Internet (810 HK), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Bilibili Inc (BILI US) placements, VinFast (1905332D VN) continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.
Event-Driven developments - China Internet (810 HK), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Kingston Financial (1031 HK),  Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Olam Group (OLG SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP). 


Weekly Deals Digest (22 Dec) - Kingston, Fengxiang, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam, SSREIT, Warrego

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>Things are starting to pickup on the IPO front with the first somewhat sizeable US ADR filing done this week.</li>
<li>Placements deal flow continued to stay strong this week, even as the performance didn't.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Things are starting to pickup on the IPO front with the first somewhat sizeable US ADR filing done this week.
Placements deal flow continued to stay strong this week, even as the performance didn't.


ECM Weekly (20th Jan 23) - HK Brokers, Wuxi, IQIYI, Anycol, Adani, WM Mot, LG Ene, AIn, Oasis, Perta

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

Disappointing 4Q results highlights the outlook of low growth and limited room for margin improvement. We see further downside risks ahead.

Eric Chen

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili(Bili.US) 4Q22 Preview: Raise TP for More Optimistic Outlook in 2023

While we forecast that BILI's top line would be basically in line, we suggest that its bottom line in 4Q22/2023 would beat cons. by 6%/18% due to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weekly Deals Digest (22 Dec) - Kingston, Fengxiang, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam, SSREIT, Warrego

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Norwest, Origin, Warrego, CIIF, Fengxiang, Kingston, Yashili, Golden Energy, Olam,...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (20th Jan 23) - HK Brokers, Wuxi, IQIYI, Anycol, Adani, WM Mot, LG Ene, AIn, Oasis, Perta

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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