Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Iron Ore Dominance: Pilbara contributes 15% of Western Australia’s economic output, with iron ore exports supported by major operations like Mount Newman and global trade hubs such as Port Hedland.</li>
<li>Diversification into Green Energy: The region is expanding into lithium, manganese, and vanadium mining while advancing hydrogen projects like the A$140 million Pilbara Hydrogen Hub to drive renewable energy leadership.</li>
<li>Economic and Employment Impact: Pilbara has A$170 billion in active projects, supporting 40,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent roles.</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore Dominance: Pilbara contributes 15% of Western Australia’s economic output, with iron ore exports supported by major operations like Mount Newman and global trade hubs such as Port Hedland.
Diversification into Green Energy: The region is expanding into lithium, manganese, and vanadium mining while advancing hydrogen projects like the A$140 million Pilbara Hydrogen Hub to drive renewable energy leadership.
Economic and Employment Impact: Pilbara has A$170 billion in active projects, supporting 40,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent roles.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

<ul>
<li>Mining Disruptions: Cyclones in Pilbara can disrupt mining and port operations, affecting global iron ore supply and pricing, as seen with Cyclone Veronica (2019) and Cyclone Zelia (2025).</li>
<li>Impact on Miners and Iron Ore: Post-cyclone stocks for major miners decline, with Rio Tinto showing increased volatility, iron ore prices tend to rise from weather impact. </li>
<li>Economic Risks: Cyclone-related damage leads to higher operational costs and recovery expenses, impacting company revenues and reinforcing the financial risks of extreme weather in resource-dependent regions.</li>
</ul>


Mining Disruptions: Cyclones in Pilbara can disrupt mining and port operations, affecting global iron ore supply and pricing, as seen with Cyclone Veronica (2019) and Cyclone Zelia (2025).
Impact on Miners and Iron Ore: Post-cyclone stocks for major miners decline, with Rio Tinto showing increased volatility, iron ore prices tend to rise from weather impact. 
Economic Risks: Cyclone-related damage leads to higher operational costs and recovery expenses, impacting company revenues and reinforcing the financial risks of extreme weather in resource-dependent regions.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

<ul>
<li>The Pilbara is a globally significant mining region, known for its vast iron ore reserves, economic importance, and evolving role in renewable energy development.</li>
<li>BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue drive Pilbara’s mining industry, with BHP and Fortescue increasing output by 2.1% and 5.5% over five years, while Rio Tinto's production declined by 0.6%.</li>
<li>Mining costs have surged, with Rio Tinto's unit costs rising 10.8% annually, the highest among the three, while Fortescue’s capital expenditure has grown 13% per year, outpacing competitors.</li>
</ul>


The Pilbara is a globally significant mining region, known for its vast iron ore reserves, economic importance, and evolving role in renewable energy development.
BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue drive Pilbara’s mining industry, with BHP and Fortescue increasing output by 2.1% and 5.5% over five years, while Rio Tinto's production declined by 0.6%.
Mining costs have surged, with Rio Tinto's unit costs rising 10.8% annually, the highest among the three, while Fortescue’s capital expenditure has grown 13% per year, outpacing competitors.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN)</a></strong> shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.</li>
<li>Palliser's reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.</li>
<li>Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.</li>
</ul>


Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
Palliser's reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). </li>
<li>Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of <a target="_blank">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s </a>Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  </li>
<li>We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.


Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Australia

BHP Group Limited operates as a mining company.  The Companyengages in the exploration, development, production and processing of iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

Pilbara powers Australia’s iron ore exports and is emerging as a green energy hub, driving economic growth through major mining, infrastructure,...

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

Pilbara’s iron ore sector is a cornerstone of global trade, but its vulnerability to cyclones presents persistent financial and operational risks.

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

The Pilbara remains a vital mining and economic powerhouse, shaped by major industry players, evolving production trends, and a growing focus on...

Mint Finance

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

So is now the time to revisit Rio's dual-headed structure? I think so. But I question whether the UK shareholders are convinced on the unification....

David Blennerhassett

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)