IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.</li>
<li>Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> on an FY2023 P/E basis.</li>
<li>Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.</li>
</ul>



Suncorp (SUN AU) agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.
Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to Insurance Australia (IAG AU) on an FY2023 P/E basis.
Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.


Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxs7w823ntzt.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew from discussions on MYOB</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxsfxcgwbpyz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q3 earnings</a> ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. </li>
<li>But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.</li>
</ul>



Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ withdrew from discussions on MYOB.

Q3 earnings ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. 
But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.


ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; </li>
<li>Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and </li>
<li>While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   </li>
</ul>


CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash results from continuing operations of AUD 30.5 bn, which attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in loss provision reversals; 
Despite the poor result, CBA has chosen to pull on numerous earnings levers to make even these numbers; and 
While credit has improved, reserves will need to be buttressed as we head into a period of higher interest rates.   


Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Bendigo And Adelaide Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A steep decline in market capitalization may be well overdone</li>
<li>Compared with all domestic peers, BEN offers best value &amp; above average yield</li>
<li>Credit costs can improve dramatically, net interest income accelerating before rate rise</li>
</ul>


A steep decline in market capitalization may be well overdone
Compared with all domestic peers, BEN offers best value &amp; above average yield
Credit costs can improve dramatically, net interest income accelerating before rate rise


One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year.

One of Australia’s smaller banks has just announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance for the full year. 

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

Australia

Virgin Money UK PLC provides financial services. The Company offers online mobile solutions such as banking and other related activities. Virgin Money UK serves customers in the United Kingdom.

Bank of Queensland Limited is a full service financial institution. The Bank operates retail branches, business banking centers, and equipment finance centers throughout Australia and New Zealand.  Bank of Queensland also operates an automated teller machine (ATM) network throughout Australia.

BNK Banking Corporation Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, account checking, consumer and business loans, credit and debit cards, online and mobile banking, bill payment, and other financial services. BNK Banking serves customers in Australia.

Pepper Money Limited of Australia operates in targeted market segments and asset classes. The Company specializes in mortgages, asset finance, loan and broker servicing. Pepper Money serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

MyState Ltd. is a credit union.  The credit union accepts deposits and offers commercial, home, land, automobile and personal loans; and sponsors credit cards.

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

Australian Finance Group Ltd operates as a mortgage broker. The Company offers mortgage brokerage, personal loans, insurance, and commercial finance services. Australian Finance Group serves individuals, organizations, and institutions throughout Australia.

Challenger Limited is an investment management firm  The Company offers annuities and other retirement income products as well as manages assets for domestic and international clients.

Netwealth Group Limited provides investment management services. The Company offers portfolio management, insurance, advisory, and investment solutions. Netwealth Group focuses on funds, deposits, accounts, cash, and securities. Netwealth Group serves customers in Australia.

AUB Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers equity-based risk management, insurance broking, and specialist underwriting agencies, as well as focuses on risk solutions for clients and strengthening our partners risk advisory capabilities.

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services.  The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, asset management and investment banking services, to customers through its nationwide branches. It also has branches in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Laos, and Cayman Islands.

Columbia Banking System, Inc. is the holding company for Columbia Bank, a full service commercial bank.  The Bank serves small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and other individuals through office in the Tacoma metropolitan area and contiguous parts of the Puget Sound region of Washington, as well as the Longview and Woodland communities in southwestern Washington.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

First Financial Bankshares, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company. The Company operates several banks located in Texas. The Banks accept deposits, originate loans, transmit funds, and perform other banking services.

Glacier Bancorp, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company.  The Banks attract deposits from the general public and use those funds to originate a variety of commercial and consumer loans.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited offers a variety of banking and other financial services, including first mortgage housing finance, retail and business banking, commercial finance, funds management, treasury and foreign exchange services, superannuation and trustee services. Bendigo also offers internet banking.

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Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU)

Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to key peer, IAG, on an FY2023 P/E basis. The valuation gap can...

Arun George

ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

ANZ will issue A$3.5bn of equity - an insto block and a tradable rights offer to retail - to buy #7 bank SunCorp Bank. It adds heft, but the ACCC...

Travis Lundy

Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Pulling On All Earnings Levers

CBA: CBA reported modestly weaker FY 1H22 cash result, attributed primarily to a 77.1% decline in provision reversals. Despite the result, CBA did...

Thomas J. Monaco

BEN - A Time to Shine Relative to Peers?

Market capitalization has narrowed dramatically from August 2021, but BEN has seen dramatically improved credit metrics, good growth of net...

Daniel Tabbush

Australian Banks – Profit And Dividends Surge

BEN announced a surge in net profit, mostly due to lower credit costs. What may be more exciting is its far higher interim dividend, and guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

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