IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a> IE has considered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)</a>’s all-scrip merger offer in the best interests of the Auswide shareholders. However, the opinion comes with caveats.  </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on Auswide shareholder and regulatory approvals (ACCC, Treasury). The scheme meeting is on 2 December.</li>
<li>Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for 18 December payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.6%/10.3%.  </li>
</ul>


The Auswide Bank (ABA AU) IE has considered Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)’s all-scrip merger offer in the best interests of the Auswide shareholders. However, the opinion comes with caveats.  
The offer is conditional on Auswide shareholder and regulatory approvals (ACCC, Treasury). The scheme meeting is on 2 December.
Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for 18 December payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.6%/10.3%.  


Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially</li>
<li>Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time</li>
<li>Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present</li>
</ul>


Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially
Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time
Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present


Australia - Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

<ul>
<li>Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. </li>
<li>Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.</li>
<li>WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.</li>
</ul>


Credit growth is persistently weak in Australia, and this is as good of a sign as any, of weak demand or / and worsening credit metrics. 
Many other figures at the macro level point to weakness ahead (and now) for Australia's banks even if credit costs appear low.
WBC data on stressed corporate exposures shows all too well how migration can impact bad loans. BEN shows this too, with mortgage loans.


Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.</li>
<li>There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



IDP Education (IEL AU) and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the June rebalance.
Constituent, float and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$228m.
There are many stocks from the S&amp;P/ASX index family that will have same way or opposing flows from VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU). 


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

Australia

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited offers a variety of banking and other financial services, including first mortgage housing finance, retail and business banking, commercial finance, funds management, treasury and foreign exchange services, superannuation and trustee services. Bendigo also offers internet banking.

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Bendigo And Adelaide Bank (BEN AU)

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for the 18 December payment,...

Arun George

Australia - Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

Monthly job vacancies data continues to weaken, reminding us also of the well established HFD series on insolvencies. Risk for banks is continues...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Loan Growth Flat Line, Negative Building Approvals, WBC Credit Metrics Concerning

Loan growth flat lining for a long time in Australia, with highly negative growth rates for building approvals, and WBC and BEN showing weakening...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: IDP Education (IEL) & Lendlease Group (LLC) Out

IDP Education and Lendlease Group will be deleted from the MV Australia Equal Weight Index. Constituent, float and capping changes will result in 1...

Brian Freitas

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