Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMP released 1H23 numbers with 24-26% underlying NPAT growth in 2 key divisions</li>
<li>AUD610m of returned capital in past 12 months will see AUD140m added by October</li>
<li>AMP Bank is unlike peers, which is deposit-funded, small, focused on mortgages</li>
</ul>


AMP released 1H23 numbers with 24-26% underlying NPAT growth in 2 key divisions
AUD610m of returned capital in past 12 months will see AUD140m added by October
AMP Bank is unlike peers, which is deposit-funded, small, focused on mortgages


AMP - Strong Numbers Released,, Returning Capital, Paying Down Debt, Deposit Funded, Mortgage Bank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This morning, ACCC <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/accc-seeks-further-views-on-anzs-proposed-acquisition-of-suncorp-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it had released a "<a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/public-registers/documents/Statement%20of%20preliminary%20views%20-%2004.04.23%20-%20PR%20-%20MA1000023%20ANZ%20Suncorp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Statement of Preliminary Views</a>" on the ANZ/Suncorp deal and sought further views. </li>
<li>For now, the ACCC questions "the nature, likelihood, and extend of claimed public benefits" including synergies or claims regarding investment in Queensland. </li>
<li>Based on my reading of the document, this view is likely to carry over through the final decision due mid-June 2023. That means there's likely a trade here. </li>
</ul>


This morning, ACCC announced that it had released a "Statement of Preliminary Views" on the ANZ/Suncorp deal and sought further views. 
For now, the ACCC questions "the nature, likelihood, and extend of claimed public benefits" including synergies or claims regarding investment in Queensland. 
Based on my reading of the document, this view is likely to carry over through the final decision due mid-June 2023. That means there's likely a trade here. 


ACCC Sour on ANZ/Suncorp Bank Deal Makes for A Good Trade

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>On the 19th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">MyState Ltd (MYS AU)</a>, Tassie's largest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the MergeCo.  </li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241023/pdf/069g5vfmtptwtp.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 2nd December Expected implementation on the 18th December. The IE (Kroll) says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>


On the 19th August, MyState Ltd (MYS AU), Tassie's largest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based Auswide Bank (ABA AU).
MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the MergeCo.  

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 2nd December Expected implementation on the 18th December. The IE (Kroll) says fair &amp; reasonable.


Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/MyState Ltd (MYS AU): 2nd Dec Merger Vote

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

<ul>
<li>Back on the 19th August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mystate-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7370:1" rel="noopener">MyState Ltd (MYS AU)</a>, Tasmania’s biggest bank, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240819/pdf/066rhk5tz7gyr8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a merger</a> agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wide-bay-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18747:1" rel="noopener">Auswide Bank (ABA AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.</li>
<li>This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 19th August, MyState Ltd (MYS AU), Tasmania’s biggest bank, entered into a merger agreement by way of a Scheme with Queensland-based Auswide Bank (ABA AU).
Under the terms, MyState will issue 1.112 new shares for every share held by Auswide shareholders, with MyState/Auswide investors holding 65.9%/34.1% ownership in the combined group.
This is done and is expected to be wrapped up in December. Today is the last day of trading for Auswide cum-FY24 final dividend. 


MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Australia

Suncorp Group Ltd. offers retail and business banking, life and general insurance, superannuation and funds management services.  The Company's services include personal banking and loans, personal insurance products, credit cards, pension savings accounts, term deposits, property development finance, commercial lending, investments and lease financing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Suncorp (SUN AU)

AMP - Strong Numbers Released,, Returning Capital, Paying Down Debt, Deposit Funded, Mortgage Bank

AMP is now launching an online bank, and this is a real concern. A the same time, its margin pressure at its AMP Bank is not strong, new guidance...

Daniel Tabbush

ACCC Sour on ANZ/Suncorp Bank Deal Makes for A Good Trade

The ACCC has come out pretty clearly against the ANZ/SunCorp Bank deal, and seems to prefer a deal where SunCorp Bank would be merged with another...

Travis Lundy

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/MyState Ltd (MYS AU): 2nd Dec Merger Vote

This is done. Trading tight - as it has done from the onset - at around a 1.3% gross spread. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look...

David Blennerhassett

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

MyState (MYS AU)/Auswide (ABA AU): Consolidation Warranted

Trading at terms - inclusive of Auswide's final dividend. IF you can take down borrow cheaply on MyState, look to set up the trade should the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)