Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Ever since the start of the military government, we have been very skeptical about the election timeline. Even today, we can't put an exact date on it, but at least, we finally believe it will happen either in November this year, Feb 2019, or somewhere in between. The Army Dudes know that political pressure is mounting. Had they been democratically elected, their term would have expired in May 2018.<blockquote>The upcoming elections in late 2018 or early 2019 will be ironic in the sense that the largest…</blockquote>

Ever since the start of the military government, we have been very skeptical about the election timeline. Even today, we can't put an exact date on it, but at least, we finally believe it will happen either in November this year, Feb 2019, or somewhere in between. The Army Dudes know that political pressure is mounting. Had they been democratically elected, their term would have expired in May 2018.The upcoming elections in late 2018 or early 2019 will be ironic in the sense that the largest…

When one studies history, one realizes that empires rise and fall like leaves in the autumn winds, but as one clique's fortune whittles, others invariably rises to fill the vacumm. Such is the inevitable fact in Thai politics. We are not entirely saying that the Thaksinites are toast, but clearly they have been marginalized by the Army's (often done via the Election Commission and National Legislative Assembly) rigging of the upcoming (is it?) election. Even though we are 95% confident at this…

When one studies history, one realizes that empires rise and fall like leaves in the autumn winds, but as one clique's fortune whittles, others invariably rises to fill the vacumm. Such is the inevitable fact in Thai politics. We are not entirely saying that the Thaksinites are toast, but clearly they have been marginalized by the Army's (often done via the Election Commission and National Legislative Assembly) rigging of the upcoming (is it?) election. Even though we are 95% confident at this…

Equity Bottom-Up

The Laggard. Although we have not lost a dime investing in SCB thus far, it is fair to say that the stock has underperformed most of the large Thai banks in 2017, despite being one of the most profitable. We certainly didn't have the same issue when we invested in our alma mater KBANK ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-little-league-season-premiere-house-of-green" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7748">The Little League (Season Premiere): House of Green</a>) many years ago. After the stock doubled in a few years, we sold KBANK at around Bt200/sh when we grew skittish about valuations. The stock is worth 15-20% more…

The Laggard. Although we have not lost a dime investing in SCB thus far, it is fair to say that the stock has underperformed most of the large Thai banks in 2017, despite being one of the most profitable. We certainly didn't have the same issue when we invested in our alma mater KBANK ( The Little League (Season Premiere): House of Green) many years ago. After the stock doubled in a few years, we sold KBANK at around Bt200/sh when we grew skittish about valuations. The stock is worth 15-20% more…

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for unsecured loans. The absolute JPY balance increases at Aiful (8515.JP) remains the highest within the consumer finance industry. * Aiful’s Thai business will be profitable by FY 3/19 and is expected to represent 7% of consolidated profits by FY 3/20.  Further, media reports suggest that Aiful is considering listing its Thai subsidiary. * The drawdown…

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for unsecured loans. The absolute JPY balance increases at Aiful (8515.JP) remains the highest within the consumer finance industry. * Aiful’s Thai business will be profitable by FY 3/19 and is expected to represent 7% of consolidated profits by FY 3/20.  Further, media reports suggest that Aiful is considering listing its Thai subsidiary. * The drawdown…

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective, Bank Danomon is a time consuming and expensive transaction. Greater EPS accretion could be garnered more simply and without the risks execution, and being in Indonesia.   * Focus, in our view, would be better spent on repairing/restructuring the US operation (s) whose overall business appears to have stalled, and where greater EPS and price performance…

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective, Bank Danomon is a time consuming and expensive transaction. Greater EPS accretion could be garnered more simply and without the risks execution, and being in Indonesia.   * Focus, in our view, would be better spent on repairing/restructuring the US operation (s) whose overall business appears to have stalled, and where greater EPS and price performance…

MUFG – Bank Danamon Deal Makes Little Sense

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

First Election Since the 2014 Coup

Ever since the start of the military government, we have been very skeptical about the election timeline. Even today, we can't put an exact date on...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

New Faces in Thai Politics

When one studies history, one realizes that empires rise and fall like leaves in the autumn winds, but as one clique's fortune whittles, others...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SCB Trades Size for Relevance

The Laggard. Although we have not lost a dime investing in SCB thus far, it is fair to say that the stock has underperformed most of the large Thai...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Aiful – Sawasdee Ka

* Domestic Japanese lending business has new customer acquisition tracking above target, reflecting positive changes in the current environment for...

Thomas J. Monaco

MUFG – Bank Danamon Deal Makes Little Sense

* Bank Danamon is additive to MUFG’s ASEAN strategy, bringing it's foreign content of EPS to 50%.* From a financial and managerial perspective,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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