Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes</li>
<li>We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term</li>
<li>Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term</li>
</ul>


We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes
We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term
Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term


Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

<ul>
<li>We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials</li>
<li>TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell</li>
<li>Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx</li>
</ul>


We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials
TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell
Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx


Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>BBL reported upbeat 3Q25 earnings of Bt14.0bn (+11% YoY, +16% QoQ), beating estimates by 27–30%, driven by strong Non-NII.</li><li>Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn (+420% YoY, +12% QoQ).</li><li>Net interest income (NII) continued to decline by 8% YoY and 3% QoQ due to lower loan volumes and a narrower NIM.</li></ul>

BBL reported upbeat 3Q25 earnings of Bt14.0bn (+11% YoY, +16% QoQ), beating estimates by 27–30%, driven by strong Non-NII.Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn (+420% YoY, +12% QoQ).Net interest income (NII) continued to decline by 8% YoY and 3% QoQ due to lower loan volumes and a narrower NIM.

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt152.00, based on a PBV of 0.46x (derived from a regression model), implying upside of approximately 5% from the current price.</li><li>The long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector, with net profit expected to decline slightly at a 0.1% CAGR during 2025-27E, pressured by a narrowing NIM.</li><li>On a tactical basis, the downside risk is limited.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt152.00, based on a PBV of 0.46x (derived from a regression model), implying upside of approximately 5% from the current price.The long-term growth outlook is in line with the sector, with net profit expected to decline slightly at a 0.1% CAGR during 2025-27E, pressured by a narrowing NIM.On a tactical basis, the downside risk is limited.

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings but Provisions Increased

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET opened higher on gains in banking stocks but was weighed down by declines in DELTA, as well as finance, hospital, commerce, and energy stocks.</li><li>Although selling pressure spread across a broad range of sectors, the index managed to hold above the 1,250-point support level.</li><li>Therefore, we continue to recommend buying at the support, viewing these levels as attractive entry points, as the index has rebounded several times from this area in the past.</li></ul>

The SET opened higher on gains in banking stocks but was weighed down by declines in DELTA, as well as finance, hospital, commerce, and energy stocks.Although selling pressure spread across a broad range of sectors, the index managed to hold above the 1,250-point support level.Therefore, we continue to recommend buying at the support, viewing these levels as attractive entry points, as the index has rebounded several times from this area in the past.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. DECEMBER 19, 2025

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...

Victor Galliano

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings but Provisions Increased

We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt152.00, based on a PBV of 0.46x (derived from a regression model), implying upside of...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. DECEMBER 19, 2025

The SET opened higher on gains in banking stocks but was weighed down by declines in DELTA, as well as finance, hospital, commerce, and energy stocks.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord

​We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...

Victor Galliano

Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral

​Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...

Victor Galliano

BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL): Upbeat Earnings Lifted By Investment Gains

Non-NII rose 36% YoY and 33% QoQ, supported by gains from FVTPL investments of Bt5.5bn (+50% YoY, +147% QoQ) and net investment gains of Bt3.7bn...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited - Upbeat 2Q25 Earnings but Provisions Increased

We maintain an Outperform rating with a target price of Bt152.00, based on a PBV of 0.46x (derived from a regression model), implying upside of...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. DECEMBER 19, 2025

The SET opened higher on gains in banking stocks but was weighed down by declines in DELTA, as well as finance, hospital, commerce, and energy stocks.

Krungthai XSpring

We turn cautious on Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy; Thailand’s suspension of the peace accord in the conflict with Cambodia is...

Upgraded Bangkok Bank upgraded to buy, for its deep value and improving returns, TMB Thanachart upgraded to neutral from sell; Krung Thai remains...