Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt111.50, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 7.1%.</li><li>The valuation metrics imply upside of 15% to the fair value while the tactical downside risk is very limited. However, the long-term profit growth prospects appear to be weak.</li><li>TISCO reported a net profit of Bt1.7bn for 3Q24, slightly better than expected by 1%. This figure represents a decrease of 8.6% YoY and 2.0% QoQ.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt111.50, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 7.1%.The valuation metrics imply upside of 15% to the fair value while the tactical downside risk is very limited. However, the long-term profit growth prospects appear to be weak.TISCO reported a net profit of Bt1.7bn for 3Q24, slightly better than expected by 1%. This figure represents a decrease of 8.6% YoY and 2.0% QoQ.

Tisco Financial Group - Slightly Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings

<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on TISCO with a Neutral rating and a 12M FV of Bt98.73, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 8.1%.</li><li>The required return being lower than the dividend yield suggests that the share price may move in the range of Bt90-100/share, as in the past, with the high dividend yield helping to limit the downside risk to the share price.</li><li>Meanwhile, the long-term growth prospects remain weak, unless external supporting factors emerge, such as bond yields or the equity risk premium (ERP).</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on TISCO with a Neutral rating and a 12M FV of Bt98.73, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 8.1%.The required return being lower than the dividend yield suggests that the share price may move in the range of Bt90-100/share, as in the past, with the high dividend yield helping to limit the downside risk to the share price.Meanwhile, the long-term growth prospects remain weak, unless external supporting factors emerge, such as bond yields or the equity risk premium (ERP).

Tisco Financial Group - Lack of Growth Catalysts but Attractive Dividend

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.</li><li>We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.</li><li>We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.</li></ul>

The latest MPC meeting signaled that there is no urgency to cut the policy interest rate, despite pressures from the government or the downward revision of the inflation forecasts for 2024-25E to +0.4% and +1.1% (vs. the previous forecasts of +0.7% and +1.2%), which are only slightly above the lower bound of the MPC's inflation target range of 1-3%.We anticipate that a rate cut would only occur if external risks escalate, such as a potential tax hike policy under a Trump 2.0 administration.We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks being SCB, TTB, TISCO, and TLI.

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 13th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 13th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank

<ul><li>The latest debt relief measure, literally translated as 'You Fight, We Help,' is expected to benefit all parties involved.</li><li>Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset quality.</li><li>Ultimately, this measure aims to help alleviate the overall household debt burden. We estimate that small and medium-sized banks are likely to benefit more significantly, although the extent will depend on the number of debtors registering for the program. </li></ul>

The latest debt relief measure, literally translated as 'You Fight, We Help,' is expected to benefit all parties involved.Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset quality.Ultimately, this measure aims to help alleviate the overall household debt burden. We estimate that small and medium-sized banks are likely to benefit more significantly, although the extent will depend on the number of debtors registering for the program. 

Banking DECEMBER 13, 2024 - Small and Medium-Sized Banks to Benefit from New Debt Relief Measure

Thailand

Tisco Financial Group Pcl is a bank holding company.  The Company's banking subsidiary offers working capital, project, term, automobile and home loans; custodian services; securities brokerage; mutual funds; and private banking; and advises on equity and debt capital markets, privatizations, debt restructuring, project finance, and mergers and acquisitions.

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Tisco Financial Group (TISCO TB)

Tisco Financial Group - Slightly Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings

We maintain an Outperform rating with a 12M FV of Bt111.50, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 7.1%.

Krungthai XSpring

Tisco Financial Group - Lack of Growth Catalysts but Attractive Dividend

We initiate our coverage on TISCO with a Neutral rating and a 12M FV of Bt98.73, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 8.1%.

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Policy Interest Rate Maintained at 2.25% - DECEMBER 19, 2024

We maintain our recommendation for stocks that benefit from stable interest rates, including the banking and insurance sectors, with the top picks...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 13th): PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT Global Chemical, Bangkok Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Banking DECEMBER 13, 2024 - Small and Medium-Sized Banks to Benefit from New Debt Relief Measure

Vulnerable debtors will have the opportunity to reduce installment payments and ease interest burdens, while banks will see improvements in asset...

Krungthai XSpring

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