Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We visit the 'City of Joy,' Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.</li>
<li>Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. </li>
<li>We have been positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), </a>but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround &amp; transformation of its habits.</li>
</ul>


We visit the 'City of Joy,' Kolkata, to understand the state of the industry, focusing on microfinance and the status of lenders concentrated in the region.
Multiple factors argue for a cyclical bottom for lenders operating in West Bengal and Assam. 
We have been positive on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), but it is a play on cyclicality rather than a complete turnaround &amp; transformation of its habits.


Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.</li>
<li>The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. </li>
<li>Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. </li>
</ul>


This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.
The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. 
Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. 


Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> </li>
<li>Net profit is nearly 50% lower for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> moved from a loss to the best profit on record </li>
<li>The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> is gently widening to 77%</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) 
Net profit is nearly 50% lower for Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) while Canara Bank (CBK IN) moved from a loss to the best profit on record 
The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; Canara Bank (CBK IN) is gently widening to 77%


India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

<ul><li>Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other income</li><li>Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other incomeDepreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

India

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (PNBHFL) provides lending services. The Company offers housing loans to individuals and corporate bodies for construction, purchase, repair, and upgradation of houses, as well as loans for commercial space, loan against property, and loan for purchase of residential plots. PNBHFL serves customers in India.

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

Bank of Maharashtra Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Bank of Maharashtra also sponsors regional rural banks jointly with the Central Government and State Government.

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers mutual funds, insurance, personal loan, fixed deposits, internet banking, gold and silver, lockers, credit cards, and agricultural finance. Karur Vysya Bank serves customers throughout India.

RBL Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Company offers banking products and services such as savings accounts, fixed deposits, personal and business loans, debit and credit cards, insurance, investment management, and mobile banking. RBL Bank serves customers throughout India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank offers financial products and services such as savings and current accounts, term deposits, debit cards, insurance, government banking, retail loans, and microfinance lending. AU Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Company offers various types of financial services such as saving account, deposits, loans, and insurance solutions. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank  (UJJIVANS IN)

The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Limited provides banking services, including CD's, educational loans, housing loans and car loans.  The Bank also provides insurance services through a joint venture with MetLife India Insurance Company. The Group has about 475 branches throughout India.

City Union Bank Ltd. is a full service bank. The Bank offers a wide range of banking and financial services across India, including both domestic and International banking services.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Taichung Commercial Bank conducts commercial banking and trust business.  The Bank accepts deposits, offers loans, as well as  invests in bonds and stocks. Taichung Commercial Banks provides bills and notes discounting, draft endorsement, domestic remittance, guarantee, and securities underwriting and brokerage services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Postcard from Kolkata | Can Old Habits Die Easy?

The microfinance industry and lenders in West Bengal and Assam may be reaching a cyclical bottom, with Bandhan Bank Ltd as a potential play on this...

Pranav Bhavsar

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank announced a surprise" Scheme of Amalgamation this morning. It offers a slight premium, and lots of synergies, but most...

Travis Lundy

India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

The Nifty Bank rebalancing that may see Bandhan Bank replaced by Canara Bank is a rebalancing that is also supported by divergent fundamentals, on...

Daniel Tabbush

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional...

HDFC Securities

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