External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> </li>
<li>Net profit is nearly 50% lower for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> moved from a loss to the best profit on record </li>
<li>The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> is gently widening to 77%</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) has seen its NPL ratio decline dramatically over the past several years, which is at complete odds with Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) 
Net profit is nearly 50% lower for Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) while Canara Bank (CBK IN) moved from a loss to the best profit on record 
The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) has come down from over 200% to 100%, but remains high; Canara Bank (CBK IN) is gently widening to 77%


India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

<ul><li>Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other income</li><li>Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 132/142mmscmd by FY25/26 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ4FY24 reported EBITDA stood at INR 36bn (+11.6x YoY, -7% QoQ), which came broadly in line with our estimate, however, PAT at INR 22bn (+3.6x YoY, -23% QoQ), came below our estimate, impacted by higher depreciation and interest cost and lower other incomeDepreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional depreciation of INR 1.7bn in Q4Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We add value plays Bandhan and UBI to the buy list alongside HDFC Bank and Baroda, turning neutral from negative on SBI. Bandhan is our core Indian bank pick, UBI benefits from improving return trends</li></ul>

We add value plays Bandhan and UBI to the buy list alongside HDFC Bank and Baroda, turning neutral from negative on SBI. Bandhan is our core Indian bank pick, UBI benefits from improving return trends

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries, Bandhan Bank

India

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

India Banks - Divergent Trends at Canara and Bandhan Fundamentally Support NIFTY Bank Rebalancing

The Nifty Bank rebalancing that may see Bandhan Bank replaced by Canara Bank is a rebalancing that is also supported by divergent fundamentals, on...

Daniel Tabbush

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries

Depreciation was higher at INR 12bn (+80% YoY, +48% QoQ) due to the revision in the residual value of pipelines resulting in additional...

HDFC Securities

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 2: Bandhan and UBI added to the buy list

We add value plays Bandhan and UBI to the buy list alongside HDFC Bank and Baroda, turning neutral from negative on SBI. Bandhan is our core Indian...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: Gail (India), Phoenix Mills, Balkrishna Industries, Bandhan Bank

Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation for GAIL with a target price of INR 212 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to...

HDFC Securities

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