Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
There are 15 stocks that could have passive inflows from global trackers while 9 could see passive outflows in February.


India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer credit</li><li>Our discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket size</li><li>The RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth deceleration</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on select categories of consumer creditOur discussions with experts suggest that the RBI’s note of caution is largely centred on small-ticket personal loans (STPL) (ticket sizeThe RBI’s risk-weight measures are likely to increase the hurdle rate for banks and NBFCs towards unsecured consumer loans, resulting in a material growth decelerationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a> and sell 3x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd</a>.</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) could replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the March rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 
The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in Canara Bank and sell 3x delivery volumes in Bandhan Bank Ltd.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

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We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

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Equity Bottom-Up

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a>  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.</li>
<li>A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.</li>
<li>We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.
A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.
We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.


2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

India

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

PNB Housing Finance Ltd. (PNBHFL) provides lending services. The Company offers housing loans to individuals and corporate bodies for construction, purchase, repair, and upgradation of houses, as well as loans for commercial space, loan against property, and loan for purchase of residential plots. PNBHFL serves customers in India.

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

Bank of Maharashtra Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Bank of Maharashtra also sponsors regional rural banks jointly with the Central Government and State Government.

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers mutual funds, insurance, personal loan, fixed deposits, internet banking, gold and silver, lockers, credit cards, and agricultural finance. Karur Vysya Bank serves customers throughout India.

RBL Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Company offers banking products and services such as savings accounts, fixed deposits, personal and business loans, debit and credit cards, insurance, investment management, and mobile banking. RBL Bank serves customers throughout India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank offers financial products and services such as savings and current accounts, term deposits, debit cards, insurance, government banking, retail loans, and microfinance lending. AU Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Company offers various types of financial services such as saving account, deposits, loans, and insurance solutions. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank serves customers in India.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank  (UJJIVANS IN)

The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Limited provides banking services, including CD's, educational loans, housing loans and car loans.  The Bank also provides insurance services through a joint venture with MetLife India Insurance Company. The Group has about 475 branches throughout India.

City Union Bank Ltd. is a full service bank. The Bank offers a wide range of banking and financial services across India, including both domestic and International banking services.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Taichung Commercial Bank conducts commercial banking and trust business.  The Bank accepts deposits, offers loans, as well as  invests in bonds and stocks. Taichung Commercial Banks provides bills and notes discounting, draft endorsement, domestic remittance, guarantee, and securities underwriting and brokerage services.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Bandhan Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Bank provides accounts checking, savings deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet banking services. Bandhan Bank serves customers in India.

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Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)

India: Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Leveraged Financials: Emerging Long-Tail Risks in Unsecured Credit

India’s heterogenous unsecured retail credit market (US$160bn, 3-year CAGR at ~23%) has been in the headlines ever since the RBI clamped down on...

HDFC Securities

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank is close to replacing Bandhan Bank in the NIFTY BANK Index in March. Passives will need to trade 5.7x delivery volume on CBK and sell...

Brian Freitas

2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

Outlook on IDFC First Bank's profitability and market valuation is moving towards the top quadrant consisting of the best banking peers in India,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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