Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

<ul><li>Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.</li><li>Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.</li><li>Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.</li></ul>

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)