Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics FX webcast</strong></p><p><strong>USD weakness vs EM FX</strong></p><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/UnFCqklT" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/UnFCqklT&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1489730256591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQQaU3p1UM06EMfJnLbrWwrWez7g">http://www.screencast.com/t/UnFCqklT</a> </strong>13:56 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/677/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1489643938" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22677"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div><p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY break below 101 pivot support was the trigger to induce USD weakness back to re test the 100 level if not the 99 level. The concern is Euro 1.08 resistance and the RSI posture that does not look that bullish. Most of dollar weakness will be concentrated in EM FX and that is where we are making the biggest transition to short USD plays (MYR, BRL, TRY).</p><p>DXY (after…</p>

Chartonics FX webcastUSD weakness vs EM FXTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/UnFCqklT 13:56 min.FX webcastDXY – DXY break below 101 pivot support was the trigger to induce USD weakness back to re test the 100 level if not the 99 level. The concern is Euro 1.08 resistance and the RSI posture that does not look that bullish. Most of dollar weakness will be concentrated in EM FX and that is where we are making the biggest transition to short USD plays (MYR, BRL, TRY).DXY (after…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The NZD/USD appears to have broken out of rising trend in place since mid-2015, and now developing a declining trend.  </em>Its<em> fall in the last week or so has been persistent and rapid, suggesting a significant shift in sentiment is taking hold. Global equity markets appear more fully priced for a stronger global economy and are now vulnerable to rising US interest rates and global yields. Similarly, demand for higher yielding currencies like NZD may fade.  Global commodity prices have turned lower in recent weeks, especially milk prices.  The NZD appears very expensive compared to its narrowed yield advantage.  In a rising global yield environment, the NZD may begin to under-perform and reconnect to its now small yield advantage.  High levels of household debt represent a higher risk for the New Zealand and Australian economies in a </em>rising<em> yield environment. There would be no tears shed by the RBNZ or NZ government if the NZD fell sharply from current levels. </em></p>

The NZD/USD appears to have broken out of rising trend in place since mid-2015, and now developing a declining trend.  Its fall in the last week or so has been persistent and rapid, suggesting a significant shift in sentiment is taking hold. Global equity markets appear more fully priced for a stronger global economy and are now vulnerable to rising US interest rates and global yields. Similarly, demand for higher yielding currencies like NZD may fade.  Global commodity prices have turned lower in recent weeks, especially milk prices.  The NZD appears very expensive compared to its narrowed yield advantage.  In a rising global yield environment, the NZD may begin to under-perform and reconnect to its now small yield advantage.  High levels of household debt represent a higher risk for the New Zealand and Australian economies in a rising yield environment. There would be no tears shed by the RBNZ or NZ government if the NZD fell sharply from current levels. 

From 20,000 Feet, NZD Looks Set to Free-Fall This Year, Without a Parachute

<p><em>Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.</em></p>

Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.

Fed Already Behind the Curve, USD Looks Cheap Compared to Yield Gaps, NZD Expensive

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Wednesday 1 March 2017</p><div><strong>USD rally sequence</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1488436094483000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFKjHZynmAF_btWsDTx_wCmsVi0mw">http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr</a> </strong>10:04 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/754/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1488349798" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21754"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
</div><div>
<strong>T-Note top in line with yield spike call</strong>. After a sharp drop in the T-Note price we touted from 125.60, we face an uptick sequence on any Trump disappointment given pattern support lies at 124.50. The real test comes with Yellen and NFP Friday. Again this rising wedge pattern implies a downside surprise in price action/upside surprise in yield in…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 1 March 2017USD rally sequenceTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr 10:04 min.
FX webcast

T-Note top in line with yield spike call. After a sharp drop in the T-Note price we touted from 125.60, we face an uptick sequence on any Trump disappointment given pattern support lies at 124.50. The real test comes with Yellen and NFP Friday. Again this rising wedge pattern implies a downside surprise in price action/upside surprise in yield in…

USD Rally Sequence on Back of Yield Surprise

<p><em>Mnuchin and Trump reinforce a growing impression that the US administration wants to reset US global trade relations and they prefer a weaker US dollar.  Rising uncertainty of over progress towards US tax reform appears to be undermining confidence in the US economic recovery and the USD.  Emerging and commodity currencies have benefitted this year from stronger global economic indicators, a weaker USD and as a haven from Eurozone and Brexit political risk. These gains may stall, at least against JPY and gold, if global uncertainty remains elevated. Even though the USD is broadly weaker in recent days, metals prices have fallen.  This may be a sign that some of the confidence in the global economy is slipping. On Wednesday, the Fed minutes outlined its concern over government policy uncertainty. Some Fed members thought the US equity market was frothy and further dollar strength could dampen growth and inflation. </em></p>

Mnuchin and Trump reinforce a growing impression that the US administration wants to reset US global trade relations and they prefer a weaker US dollar.  Rising uncertainty of over progress towards US tax reform appears to be undermining confidence in the US economic recovery and the USD.  Emerging and commodity currencies have benefitted this year from stronger global economic indicators, a weaker USD and as a haven from Eurozone and Brexit political risk. These gains may stall, at least against JPY and gold, if global uncertainty remains elevated. Even though the USD is broadly weaker in recent days, metals prices have fallen.  This may be a sign that some of the confidence in the global economy is slipping. On Wednesday, the Fed minutes outlined its concern over government policy uncertainty. Some Fed members thought the US equity market was frothy and further dollar strength could dampen growth and inflation. 

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

USD Weakness Versus EM FX

Chartonics FX webcastUSD weakness vs EM FXTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/UnFCqklT 13:56 min.DXY – DXY break below 101...

Thomas Schroeder

From 20,000 Feet, NZD Looks Set to Free-Fall This Year, Without a Parachute

The NZD/USD appears to have broken out of rising trend in place since mid-2015, and now developing a declining trend. Its fall in the last week or...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Already Behind the Curve, USD Looks Cheap Compared to Yield Gaps, NZD Expensive

Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the...

Greg Gibbs

USD Rally Sequence on Back of Yield Surprise

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 1 March 2017USD rally sequenceTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/Z96hDgpULaxr 10:04 min. T-Note...

Thomas Schroeder

Mnuchin Takes a BAT to the Dollar

Mnuchin and Trump reinforce a growing impression that the US administration wants to reset US global trade relations and they prefer a weaker US...

Greg Gibbs

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