FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.</em></p>

Alternative measures of core inflation in the US, including the Dallas Fed’s PCE trimmed mean measures, show inflation is now very close to the Fed’s mandate and in a rising trend.  Core CPI measures, including the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean and median, are well above the mandate.  Inflation trends globally appear to have turned higher, including in China, the USA’s biggest source of imported goods.  The NY Fed’s survey of inflation expectations was at an 18-month high in January.  Jobless claims were at a record low last week, and a range of activity indicators show rising and above trend growth; including the ISM manufacturing new orders index rising in February to equal the peak in 2013.  While there has been much focus on Trump’s economic policy proposals, current indicators suggest that the Fed may have fallen behind the curve.  Apart from hiking on 15 March, now widely expected, the Fed may also upgrade its forecast for rates and its risk assessment.  The USD has significantly underperformed the improvement in its yield advantage over the last 18 months.  Even though the USD is at historically high levels, compared to relative interest rates, it now appears cheap against most currency pairs.  The NZD appears to be one of the most over-valued currencies compared to yield spreads and would be vulnerable to any pullback in global risk appetite or a further rise in global bond yields.

Fed Already Behind the Curve, USD Looks Cheap Compared to Yield Gaps, NZD Expensive