New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final report decision (published today).</li><li>The ComCom appears to have shown an element of leniency in its analysis and final decision.</li><li>WIAL targeted a PSE4 return of 5.88%, above the ComCom’s midpoint WACC estimate of 5.67%</li></ul>

Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final report decision (published today).The ComCom appears to have shown an element of leniency in its analysis and final decision.WIAL targeted a PSE4 return of 5.88%, above the ComCom’s midpoint WACC estimate of 5.67%

Auckland Airport: ComCom Tick for Wellington’s Aero Pricing

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight market</li><li>Mainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growth</li><li>Port of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment</li></ul>

Freightways (FRE): We are attracted to FRE due to (1) the strength of new customer, (2) further pricing for effort opportunities, and (3) the disciplined expansion into the Australian express freight marketMainfreight (MFT): MFT is a high quality business with a proven track record for growthPort of Tauranga (POT): POT offers attractive defensive characteristics in the current environment

<ul><li>The aviation recovery path is slower than previously anticipated; it's being held back by system capacity constraints due to labour and aircraft availability</li><li>AIA is entering a significant capex bulge that dwarfs previous periods of elevated capital development</li><li>The duty free re-tender process is being deferred until the end of FY24</li></ul>

The aviation recovery path is slower than previously anticipated; it's being held back by system capacity constraints due to labour and aircraft availabilityAIA is entering a significant capex bulge that dwarfs previous periods of elevated capital developmentThe duty free re-tender process is being deferred until the end of FY24

Auckland Airport: FY22 — Landing on UNDERPERFORM

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) reported another full year underlying loss, but it was better than guidance (as we expected)</li><li>The pax recovery helped through the second half though appears subdued for FY23 relative to current market expectations</li><li>No final dividend will be paid reflecting the covenant waiver agreement with lenders.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) reported another full year underlying loss, but it was better than guidance (as we expected)The pax recovery helped through the second half though appears subdued for FY23 relative to current market expectationsNo final dividend will be paid reflecting the covenant waiver agreement with lenders.

Auckland Airport: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Aeronautical capex outlook: AIA has yet to provide any formal guidance for aeronautical capex through PSE4 (FY23–FY27)</li><li>Duty free concession(s): We expect AIA to announce the extension of existing duty free concessions</li><li>Pax recovery: Uncertainty persists around the shape and duration of the pax recovery, particularly the Chinese market</li></ul>

Aeronautical capex outlook: AIA has yet to provide any formal guidance for aeronautical capex through PSE4 (FY23–FY27)Duty free concession(s): We expect AIA to announce the extension of existing duty free concessionsPax recovery: Uncertainty persists around the shape and duration of the pax recovery, particularly the Chinese market

Auckland Airport: FY22 Preview — Profits to Land

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport: ComCom Tick for Wellington’s Aero Pricing

Wellington Airport’s (WIAL) PSE4 aero pricing for FY20-FY24 has been given a tick of approval from the Commerce Commission (ComCom) in its final...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Mixed Bag

The post-pandemic world is a mixed bag for the transport sector: aviation is enjoying an expected and much needed resurgence; global airfreight...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: FY22 — Landing on UNDERPERFORM

Auckland Airport's close to break-even FY22 result is largely irrelevant when considering the bigger picture, FY23 too

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: FY22 Result Initial Thoughts

Auckland Airport (AIA) reported another full year underlying loss, but it was better than guidance (as we expected)

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: FY22 Preview — Profits to Land

Expecting Auckland Airport (AIA) to report a close to break-even FY22 underlying NPAT result on 18 August 2022, implying its first half yearly...

Forsyth Barr

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