New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Inflation premium on valuation: Our analysis of both AIA and global infrastructure suggests inflation is boosting their relative attractiveness</li><li>Conservative bias in our relative valuation analysis, yet AIA still appears expensive</li><li>Upcoming catalysts: There are several events that could impact AIA over the next 12 months</li></ul>

Inflation premium on valuation: Our analysis of both AIA and global infrastructure suggests inflation is boosting their relative attractivenessConservative bias in our relative valuation analysis, yet AIA still appears expensiveUpcoming catalysts: There are several events that could impact AIA over the next 12 months

Auckland Airport: Inflation Tends to Make Things More Expensive

<ul><li>Single operator model accretive to earnings: AIA has selected Lagardère Travel Retail SAS (trading as Aelia) as its main duty-free retailer, which will shift to a single operator model in September 2023</li><li>ComCom no longer a headwind: In 2007 AIA awarded a sole duty free concession to DFS Galleria</li><li>Seven year retail income recovery: The post COVID-19 recovery in AIA's retail income will be gradual over the next few years</li></ul>

Single operator model accretive to earnings: AIA has selected Lagardère Travel Retail SAS (trading as Aelia) as its main duty-free retailer, which will shift to a single operator model in September 2023ComCom no longer a headwind: In 2007 AIA awarded a sole duty free concession to DFS GalleriaSeven year retail income recovery: The post COVID-19 recovery in AIA's retail income will be gradual over the next few years

Auckland Airport: Duty Free Finally Flying Solo

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Air cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacity</li><li>In this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector</li></ul>

Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levelsAir cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacityIn this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

<ul><li>New pax assumptions: AIA now expects FY23 passenger (pax) levels consistent with our expectations</li><li>Conservative guidance track record: AIA has a track record of under-promising and over-delivering when setting earnings guidance</li><li>Capex guidance retained: Management has retained its FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m–NZ$700m</li></ul>

New pax assumptions: AIA now expects FY23 passenger (pax) levels consistent with our expectationsConservative guidance track record: AIA has a track record of under-promising and over-delivering when setting earnings guidanceCapex guidance retained: Management has retained its FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m–NZ$700m

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130m</li><li>Our FY23 NPAT estimate is already at NZ$134m and Visible Alpha consensus at ~NZ$112m</li><li>There is no change to the FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m-NZ$700m.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130mOur FY23 NPAT estimate is already at NZ$134m and Visible Alpha consensus at ~NZ$112mThere is no change to the FY23 capex guidance of NZ$600m-NZ$700m.

Auckland Airport: Guidance Upgrade; Consensus Already There

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport: Inflation Tends to Make Things More Expensive

We've scratched our heads many times over the years to understand Auckland Airport's (AIA) high valuation multiple backdrop; our analysis this time...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: Duty Free Finally Flying Solo

Auckland Airport (AIA) is shifting to a single duty free operator model ~15 years after it last tried to do so and ComCom has not made any...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: Much Ado About Nothing

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 earnings guidance, though the new range is still below our expectations; Management guidance has...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport: Guidance Upgrade; Consensus Already There

Auckland Airport (AIA) has upgraded its FY23 NPAT guidance range from NZ$50m-NZ$100m to NZ$100m-NZ$130m; We viewed the previous guidance was given...

Forsyth Barr

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