Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-int-l-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22803:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate stocks and decreased in Financial names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1" rel="noopener">Casio Computer (6952 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, Health Care and Information Technology, while shorts were covered on Consumer Discretionary and Financials.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts was on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>, while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>. News <a href="https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=54911" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> have indicated that the FSC will lift the temporary short sell ban on 15 March 2021 and will apply to all stocks irrespective of market cap. Earlier reports had indicated that the short sell ban would stay in place for small cap stocks.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">Au Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>  while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK), Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK) and HKEX (388 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). Shorts increased in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate stocks and decreased in Financial names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Casio Computer (6952 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) while shorts decreased on M3 Inc (2413 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) and Ana Holdings (9202 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Communication Services, Health Care and Information Technology, while shorts were covered on Consumer Discretionary and Financials.In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts was on Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS), while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) and Celltrion Inc (068270 KS). News reports have indicated that the FSC will lift the temporary short sell ban on 15 March 2021 and will apply to all stocks irrespective of market cap. Earlier reports had indicated that the short sell ban would stay in place for small cap stocks.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Au Optronics (2409 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT)  while shorts were covered on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT) and Walsin Technology (2492 TT).

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Shorts Continue to Rise in HK, Japan & Taiwan; Korea Ban to Be Lifted

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 13th AUGUST •</strong></p><p>The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a>, the 'worst' from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/408/original/2020-08-14_05-05-16.png?1597349134" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/409/original/2020-08-14_05-05-59.png?1597349190" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152409"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - <strong>58%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>48%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and <strong>61%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>30%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>170 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 12% Neutral / 58% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: -</strong>2.7 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.8% Quarter YoY / +5.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.3 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 30%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>56 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 38% Positive / 14% Neutral / 48% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 26% Positive / 13% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.2 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 13th AUGUST •The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Rakus (3923 JP), the 'worst' from ASICS Corp (7936 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATSPERCENTAGES - 58% of quarterly results, 48% of annual forecasts/revisions and 61% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.170 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 29% Positive / 12% Neutral / 58% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.8% Quarter YoY / +5.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.3 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 30%
56 Annual • 23 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 38% Positive / 14% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 26% Positive / 13% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.2 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th August - Asics, FUJIFILM, Dentsu, Mitsubishi Shoji

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Japanese sporting goods company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>’s share price and consensus FY+2 EV/OP has declined by 2.8% and 8.4% respectively, since our previous insight on 12<sup>th</sup> June 2020: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asics-at-a-20-year-forward-ev-op-peak" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASICS: At a 20-Year Forward EV/​OP Peak</a>. However, the company is still trading at <a target="_blank">23.9x </a>FY+2 EV/OP, 28% higher than the 52-week average.</p><p>The company posts sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks and according to the latest charts, sales trends in Japan, Europe, and the U.S have materially weakened over the last 3-4 weeks. However, the consensus FY+2 OP estimate was increased 6% during that time, possibly due to the positive news flows about the progress of the COVID-19 vaccine trials and the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics till July 2021.</p><p>The economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to outlast the health impact, and we believe the recent upward revision of the consensus FY+2 OP is untimely, especially given the weakening own store retail sales trend.</p>

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s share price and consensus FY+2 EV/OP has declined by 2.8% and 8.4% respectively, since our previous insight on 12th June 2020: ASICS: At a 20-Year Forward EV/​OP Peak. However, the company is still trading at 23.9x FY+2 EV/OP, 28% higher than the 52-week average.The company posts sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks and according to the latest charts, sales trends in Japan, Europe, and the U.S have materially weakened over the last 3-4 weeks. However, the consensus FY+2 OP estimate was increased 6% during that time, possibly due to the positive news flows about the progress of the COVID-19 vaccine trials and the postponement of the Tokyo Olympics till July 2021.The economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to outlast the health impact, and we believe the recent upward revision of the consensus FY+2 OP is untimely, especially given the weakening own store retail sales trend.

ASICS: Near 20-Year Forward EV/​OP Peak

<p>Japanese sporting goods company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP) </a>has started posting sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks and will continue to do so for the rest of the year. No sales data is provided, however, sales trends in Japan, Europe and the US remained weak until the end of May. Asics China, however, recorded positive year-on-year sales growth over the last four weeks.</p>
<p>Asics is currently trading at a twenty-year peak FY+2 EV/OP multiple of 26.1x. Our target price of ¥783, based on the 5-year average for this ratio, implies a 41.9% downside from the current price.</p>
<h3>EV/EBIT- FY+2</h3>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/405/original/image_11376073521591862142863.png?1591862144" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139405"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Cap IQ</div>

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has started posting sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks and will continue to do so for the rest of the year. No sales data is provided, however, sales trends in Japan, Europe and the US remained weak until the end of May. Asics China, however, recorded positive year-on-year sales growth over the last four weeks.
Asics is currently trading at a twenty-year peak FY+2 EV/OP multiple of 26.1x. Our target price of ¥783, based on the 5-year average for this ratio, implies a 41.9% downside from the current price.
EV/EBIT- FY+2

Source: Cap IQ

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STRESS TESTS</strong> - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.</p><p><strong>ALTMAN Z-SCORES</strong> - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  </p><p><strong>QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS</strong> - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries - <strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a></strong>,<strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a></strong>- have been excluded from this analysis. </p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Shorts Continue to Rise in HK, Japan & Taiwan; Korea Ban to Be Lifted

Short interest continued to increase in HK, Japan and Taiwan, while the FSC has announced that the short sell ban in Korea will be lifted on 15...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th August - Asics, FUJIFILM, Dentsu, Mitsubishi Shoji

•BEST & WORST 13th AUGUST •The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Rakus (3923 JP), the 'worst' from ASICS Corp (7936 JP). ...

Campbell Gunn

ASICS: Near 20-Year Forward EV/OP Peak

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s share price and consensus FY+2 EV/OP has declined by 2.8% and 8.4% respectively, since our...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ASICS: At a 20-Year Forward EV/OP Peak

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has started posting sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Shorts Continue to Rise in HK, Japan & Taiwan; Korea Ban to Be Lifted

Short interest continued to increase in HK, Japan and Taiwan, while the FSC has announced that the short sell ban in Korea will be lifted on 15...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th August - Asics, FUJIFILM, Dentsu, Mitsubishi Shoji

•BEST & WORST 13th AUGUST •The 'best' of yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Rakus (3923 JP), the 'worst' from ASICS Corp (7936 JP). ...

Campbell Gunn

ASICS: Near 20-Year Forward EV/​OP Peak

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s share price and consensus FY+2 EV/OP has declined by 2.8% and 8.4% respectively, since our...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ASICS: At a 20-Year Forward EV/OP Peak

Japanese sporting goods company ASICS Corp (7936 JP) has started posting sales trends for its direct retail outlets in chart format every two weeks...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

ASICS: Near 20-Year Forward EV/OP Peak