HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For full-year 2024, sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach about RMB240 million, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations. RMB500 million sales of olverembatinib is expected in 2025.</li>
<li>Market value of US$1.25 – 1.9 billion is reasonable range for Ascentage if just considering olverembatinib alone. The peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass olverembatinib in overseas markets. </li>
<li>The next big catalyst is the potential licensing cooperation with MNCs for APG-2575, if reaches, would push Ascentage’s market value to surpass HUTCHMED, as prospects of APG-2575 is basically guaranteed.</li>
</ul>


For full-year 2024, sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach about RMB240 million, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations. RMB500 million sales of olverembatinib is expected in 2025.
Market value of US$1.25 – 1.9 billion is reasonable range for Ascentage if just considering olverembatinib alone. The peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass olverembatinib in overseas markets. 
The next big catalyst is the potential licensing cooperation with MNCs for APG-2575, if reaches, would push Ascentage’s market value to surpass HUTCHMED, as prospects of APG-2575 is basically guaranteed.


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. </li>
<li>Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)’s IFA opines that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s HK$24.60 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 22 January. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There are recent movements in H Share substantial shareholders. 
Key shareholders should be supportive of the cash/scrip offer. At the last close and for a 15 February payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/16.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

<ul>
<li>Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.</li>
<li>At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.</li>
<li>Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. </li>
</ul>


Ascentage was originally in an extremely difficult situation, but the cooperation with Takeda turned things around. Ascentage has obtained urgently needed cash flow to solve the survival problem.
At this stage, it’s possible for Ascentage to hit about 50% market value of HCM.  Investors are interested to know if APG-2575 would also be out-licensed, which however is not easy.
Ascentage’s current strength isn’t sufficient to self-build sales system. While this deal is a good start, if Ascentage still chooses to do commercialization on its own, it’s time to sell. 


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 30th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

China

Ascentage Pharma Group International operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The Company develops novel therapies for cancers, hepatitis B virus, age-related diseases, and more. Ascentage Pharma Group International conducts businesses in China, the United States, and other countries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK)

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

Olverembatinib sales is expected to reach RMB240 million in 2024, RMB500 million in 2025. Reasonable market value is US$1.25-1.9 billion. Licensing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) - The Future Valuation Leap Is Worth Looking Forward To

Olverembatinib sales is expected to reach RMB240 million in 2024, RMB500 million in 2025. Reasonable market value is US$1.25-1.9 billion. Licensing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Interesting Shareholder Movements with the Vote on 22 January

Key shareholders will be supportive, and this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 15 February payment was 2.9%...

Arun George

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Signs $1.3B Deal with Takeda - Finally on the Right Path

​Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 30th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Cooperation with Takeda saves Ascentage from survival problem, but self-building sales team remains a challenge. Investors eye anther deal with...