IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>’s shares are up 0.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,564 per share (12 July).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asics’ shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 23 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s shares are up 0.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,564 per share (12 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asics’ shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 23 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two weeks ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> revealed plans for a secondary offering, aiming to sell 33.48m common shares in international markets.</li>
<li>In this insight, we delve into the fundamentals of the business, identifying an opportunity if the offering is priced at a decent discount compared to Asahi’s current price.</li>
<li>We think recent price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> in the next 3-4 years.</li>
</ul>


Two weeks ago, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) revealed plans for a secondary offering, aiming to sell 33.48m common shares in international markets.
In this insight, we delve into the fundamentals of the business, identifying an opportunity if the offering is priced at a decent discount compared to Asahi’s current price.
We think recent price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi to outperform Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) in the next 3-4 years.


Asahi Offering: Discount Presents a Good Entry Point As Price Hikes & Tax Reforms Strengthen Asahi

Asahi Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.3 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>’s shares are down -6.2% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,804 per share (16 November).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asahi’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements. </li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s shares are down -6.2% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,804 per share (16 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asahi’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements. 
The offering will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Asahi Group (2502 JP): The Current Playbook

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> via an extended secondary follow-on.</li>
<li>We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asahi-group-placement-relatively-small-one-when-compared-to-previous-large-jp-secondary-selldowns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117700" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Placement - Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended secondary follow-on.
We have covered the background of the deal in our earlier note, Asahi Group Placement - Relatively Small One when Compared to Previous Large JP Secondary Selldowns.
In this note, we talk about the updates since and look at the performance of some of the past large Japan deals.


Asahi Group Placement - Follow Up - Shaping up for a Christmas Cheer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>. That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.</li>
<li>There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX</a> trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.</li>
</ul>


Nine shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares of Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP). That is US$1.28bn, 24x ADV and 6.6% of shares outstanding.
Given the recent run up in the stock, there could be downside over the next couple of weeks ahead of the pricing date.
There will be buying from global trackers but nothing from TOPIX trackers, so not a lot of stock will be mopped up. Passive buying before settlement could create a squeeze.


Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

ITO EN, LTD. produces various types of Japanese tea and canned beverages.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

Coca Cola Bottlers Japan produces and sells Coca-Cola, other beverages and foods through subsidiaries. The company also operates logistics, auto vending machine, and other businesses.

TAKARA HOLDINGS INC. produces distilled spirits, sake, soft drinks, and cooking wine.  The Company also sells alcoholic beverages under the brand names, Shouchikubai, Takara Can Chuhai, and Takara Shochu.

HOKKAIDO COCA-COLA BOTTLING CO., LTD. produces soft and cold canned drinks in Hokkaido.

YOMEISHU SEIZO CO., LTD. produces medicinal alcoholic drinks under the Yomeishu brand name.  The Company also produces distilled spirits, rice wine, and base alcohol.

Oenon Holdings, Inc. is a producer of rice wine, liquor and seasoning.  The Company produces mainly sake and shochu.

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Company Ltd. manufactures spirits. The Company's products include white spirits, top-graded gifts liquor, and liquor for daily consumption.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Brown-Forman Corporation manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, and markets a wide variety of alcoholic beverage brands. The Company's products include branded whiskey, vodka, wines, tequila, bourbon, and gin.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

Coca-Cola HBC AG is one of the bottlers in the Coca-Cola system, operating plants in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The Company produces, sells, and distributes a wide range of non-alcoholic beverages, including sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, tea, and coffee.

Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark, and it is sold in markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water, and wine.

Varun Beverages Limited produces and distributes beverages. The Company offers carbonated soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as provides packaged drinking water. Varun Beverages serves customers worldwide.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)

ASICS (7936 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 23 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Asahi Offering: Discount Presents a Good Entry Point As Price Hikes & Tax Reforms Strengthen Asahi

A discount could be a good entry point, as price hikes and ongoing alcohol tax reforms position Asahi in a fundamentally strong position.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Asahi Group (2502 JP): The Current Playbook

The shares are down 6.2% since announcing the offering, which will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large...

Arun George

Asahi Group Placement - Follow Up - Shaping up for a Christmas Cheer

A group of shareholders aims to raise US$1.3bn (JPY197.8bn) by selling their respective stakes in Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) via an extended...

Clarence Chu

Asahi Group (2502 JP): Big Placement with Limited Index Buying; Timing Is Key

9 shareholders are looking to sell 33.48m shares (6.6% of shares out). The stock has run up and should correct in the short-term. Global passives...

Brian Freitas

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