Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As more suppliers announce price increases, larger retailers are turning to discount campaigns to establish some early price credibility before competition gets even fiercer. </li>
<li>Lower prices will increasingly attract customers as price sensitivity quickly rises, benefiting discount retailers.</li>
<li>But, with the Yen so low, import prices are also set to add to the pressure pin standard price retailers – a full list of vulnerable retailers below.</li>
</ul>


As more suppliers announce price increases, larger retailers are turning to discount campaigns to establish some early price credibility before competition gets even fiercer. 
Lower prices will increasingly attract customers as price sensitivity quickly rises, benefiting discount retailers.
But, with the Yen so low, import prices are also set to add to the pressure pin standard price retailers – a full list of vulnerable retailers below.


Japan's Big Retailers Resist Price Pressure

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a> announced yesterday that it will raise the prices of a majority of its domestic beverage brands to pass the rising cost of raw materials to customers.</li>
<li>Although beers as a whole has a relatively inelastic demand, the price elasticity in different categories of beer varies quite a bit with high malt beers having highly elastic demand.</li>
<li>We think the price hike could be more detrimental to Asahi than its competitors as the company generates most of its domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.</li>
</ul>



Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP) announced yesterday that it will raise the prices of a majority of its domestic beverage brands to pass the rising cost of raw materials to customers.
Although beers as a whole has a relatively inelastic demand, the price elasticity in different categories of beer varies quite a bit with high malt beers having highly elastic demand.
We think the price hike could be more detrimental to Asahi than its competitors as the company generates most of its domestic revenue from the price-sensitive high malt beer segment.


Asahi Raises Domestic Beverage Prices: Elastic “Beer” Demand Makes the Price Hike Unfavourable

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s NAV discount has narrowed from around 30% in July 2021 to 17% by November 2021.</li>
<li>Institutional investors have started to increase their ownership of Kirin after trimming their stakes during the first half of the year.</li>
<li>We think that NAV discount will continue to narrow over the next few months as institutional investors come back to own Kirin following the issues with the Myanmar business.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s NAV discount has narrowed from around 30% in July 2021 to 17% by November 2021.
Institutional investors have started to increase their ownership of Kirin after trimming their stakes during the first half of the year.
We think that NAV discount will continue to narrow over the next few months as institutional investors come back to own Kirin following the issues with the Myanmar business.


Kirin: Holdco Discount Is Starting to Unwind Alongside The Return of Institutional Investors

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

Japan

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)

Japan's Big Retailers Resist Price Pressure

The pressure on costs should just mean that retailers raise prices but with competition so intense, standard retailers are trying to resist raising...

Michael Causton

Asahi Raises Domestic Beverage Prices: Elastic “Beer” Demand Makes the Price Hike Unfavourable

We think the price hike could be more detrimental to Asahi than its competitors as Asahi generates most of its domestic revenue from the more price...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Kirin: Holdco Discount Is Starting to Unwind Alongside The Return of Institutional Investors

Even though Kirin's listed holdings have gained more than 200% since 2019, Kirin's share price has failed to reflect that significant increase in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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